The USD to VND exchange rate has shown stability recently, trading at approximately 26,330 VND per USD, which is close to its three-month average and has fluctuated within a narrow range of 0.5% between 26,298 and 26,427 VND.
Analysts note that the US dollar is experiencing a broader weakening trend due to increasing market expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. This environment is leading to a diminished yield advantage for the USD, putting downward pressure on the dollar. The mixed signals from recent US economic data indicate slowing growth, particularly in manufacturing and consumer spending, while the labor market remains relatively strong, creating a complex backdrop for the dollar's performance.
Meanwhile, the Vietnamese đồng is forecasted to depreciate by about 3% against the USD in 2025, as noted by experts. This anticipated decline could be driven by the strength of the US dollar and broader global economic trends. Recent developments, such as the introduction of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency transactions in VND and new reporting requirements for significant transfers, may influence domestic monetary dynamics.
The effect of severe flooding in Northern Vietnam on the economy also adds uncertainty, potentially exacerbating the downward pressure on the VND due to the significant economic losses incurred in recent months.
As both currencies navigate these influences, market participants are advised to monitor forthcoming economic indicators, including inflation prints and Federal Reserve communications, which will be critical in shaping future exchange rate movements.
