The exchange rate forecast for the USD to VND remains influenced by a range of market dynamics and recent economic indicators. Analysts noted that the US dollar (USD) faced pressure due to recent cooler inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) holding steady at 2.7% for July, rather than rising as expected. This data has led to uncertainties regarding the direction of the USD, particularly in the context of global market risk appetite.
As the Federal Reserve prepares for potential changes in leadership and upcoming inflation reports, economists suggest that market expectations around interest rate adjustments will play a significant role in the USD's performance. Notably, the looming deadline for U.S.-China tariff negotiations adds additional uncertainty, potentially impacting sectors that rely heavily on the Vietnamese market.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) could benefit from continued economic growth, with Vietnam's economy expanding by 7.09% in 2024 driven by strong export demand and foreign investment. This robust performance, coupled with the International Monetary Fund projecting declining global inflation, could support a stable VND. Analysts emphasize that the State Bank of Vietnam's monetary policy responses are crucial as they seek to balance interest rates and maintain inflation control amidst external pressures.
Currently, the USD to VND exchange rate is hovering near 90-day highs at approximately 26,288, just slightly above its 3-month average of 26,109. The rate has remained stable, trading within a narrow range of 1.4% over the past months. Forecasters point out that ongoing tariff negotiations and global economic trends are pivotal factors that may influence the exchange rate in the near future. As such, businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions should remain vigilant and consider the evolving macroeconomic landscape when planning currency exchanges.
