The USD to VND exchange rate has recently faced significant challenges, as highlighted by analysts who point to various factors undermining the US dollar's strength. Labour market concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown have contributed to weakened sentiment for the USD. Reports of a surprising decline in employment in September and the delay in releasing key jobless claims figures have exacerbated this outlook. Analysts suggest that upcoming ISM services PMI data could offer some respite if it shows robust expansion.
Meanwhile, several broader economic factors continue to influence USD dynamics. The anticipated transition in Federal Reserve leadership and upcoming inflation data are critical, as these developments may direct future monetary policy decisions. Additionally, escalating US-China trade tensions and global dedollarization trends are placing additional pressure on the USD. Experts note that efforts to implement the Mar-a-Lago Accord could also lead to a devaluation of the US dollar.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese đồng (VND) is projected to depreciate against the USD according to forecasts from Vietcombank Securities Company. They predict a decline of about 3% for the VND in 2025, predominantly influenced by the strengthening of the USD and prevailing global economic trends. Notably, the State Bank of Vietnam has taken steps to stabilize the currency, including significant interventions in the foreign exchange market amounting to around $1.5 billion. These actions have been crucial given the recent market fluctuations and pressures on the VND.
Currently, the USD to VND exchange rate hovers around 26,361, close to 30-day lows and just above its three-month average range. The market has shown relative stability within a tight range of 1.2%, fluctuating between 26,114 and 26,434. Currency experts continue to monitor these movements, emphasizing that the interplay of domestic and international economic conditions will be vital for future trends in the exchange rate.
