Citibank US dollar (USD) Transfers Compared

Bias bullish-to-range-bound, as USD sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is seen staying higher for longer versus the ECB’s neutral stance, supporting USD. - Risk/commodities: Oil is above its 3-month average and volatile, which tends to support USD as energy costs influence euro-area growth. - Macro factor: US unemployment falling supports a firmer dollar. Range The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the upper end but not a breakout; recent moves remain within range. What could change it - Upside risk: A hotter US payrolls report or hawkish Fed rhetoric. - Downside risk: Softer US data or renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts