Royal Bank of Scotland Transfers Compared

Bias GBP/USD remains bullish-to-range-bound, sitting above its 90-day average in the upper half of the 3-month range, with a near-term tilt modestly positive unless UK data disappoints. Key drivers - Rate gap: BoE is expected to ease gradually while the Fed moves toward a neutral stance this year; the policy gap remains modest, and a clearer UK recovery would reinforce a cautious upside bias for GBP. - Macro factor: upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will shape bets on Fed timing, with softer payroll growth and cooling unemployment supporting a gradual, market-friendly path for the dollar. Range Range: likely to drift within the three-month range, with a tilt toward the upper end if risk appetite improves and US data reinforces bets on easier policy. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger UK data could push the BoE to pause cuts sooner, lifting GBP. - Downside risk: softer US data or a dovish Fed signal boosting the USD could weigh on GBP/USD