Outlook
GBP may stay rangebound as the UK data calendar thins today and BoE rate-cut timing remains unclear. Sticky services inflation keeps the BoE in focus, while signs of labour market weakness cap upside.
Key drivers
- Final services PMI shows sticky inflation but job cuts in services, shaping the BoE timing.
- Light UK data today keeps clear direction elusive.
- External factors, including USD moves and risk appetite, influence cross rates.
Range
- GBP/USD: 1.3354 (60-day lows), range 1.3300–1.3837; about 1% below its 3-month average.
- GBP/EUR: 1.1510 (14-day high), range 1.1381–1.1590; just above its 3-month average.
- GBP/JPY: 210.4, range 207.0–214.3; near its 3-month average.
What could change it
- A UK data surprise on services, inflation or jobs could shift BoE expectations and drive GBP.
- A shift in risk appetite or global cues (Fed/ECB) may move USD and cross rates.
- Clearer BoE guidance or policy signals could tilt the pairs more decisively.
