XE Canadian dollar (CAD) Transfers Compared

Bias CAD/USD range-bound, mid-range and above 90-day avg. Oil strength supports CAD via energy links as BoC stays cautious and Fed eases gradually. Jan data due could set the next cue. Key drivers - Rate gap: BoC policy remains at a low, steady level with cautious language, while the Fed is still expected to ease gradually toward neutral this year and beyond. - Oil trend: Oil prices have surged to the top end of their recent move and sit above their own average, underpinning CAD due to Canada’s energy links. - Macro factor: Upcoming January data on Canada’s trade balance and employment will provide fresh clues about the economy’s footing. Range Within the last three months, CAD/USD has held a steady course; expect a slow drift within that range, with a possible nudge toward the upper boundary if oil resilience continues, and a softer domestic growth path could further limit moves. Recent moves have been modest with no breakout. What could change it - Upside risk: Oil resilience and a softer dollar from Fed easing bets could push CAD higher toward the top of the range. - Downside risk: Stronger US data or a quicker-than-expected Fed tightening path could lift the dollar and pull CAD lower