Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, GBP/MYR is below its 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE is expected to ease gradually while Malaysia’s stance remains steadier, narrowing any clear advantage for GBP against MYR.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is trading above its three-month average with added volatility, a dynamic that typically supports the MYR through its commodity/export links.
- Macro factor: US rate cuts have eased the dollar, a trend that tends to support the MYR on a broad basis.
Range: GBP/MYR is likely to drift within the recent range, with a modest tilt toward the lower end as market momentum shifts.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected UK data or inflation that slows BoE easing could lift GBP versus MYR.
- Downside risk: A renewed risk-off move strengthening the USD or a sharp drop in oil could pressure the pair lower.