The exchange rate for GBP to PLN has shown stability recently, currently trading at 4.9172, slightly below its three-month average. Analysts note that the rate has fluctuated within a narrow range of 3.4%, between 4.8521 and 5.0189, indicating a relatively calm market despite underlying economic pressures.
Concerns regarding the UK's fiscal position are weighing on the British pound. Speculation about the government's upcoming budget announcement on November 26 and the potential for tax hikes or spending cuts is causing apprehension among GBP investors. In addition, the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate outlook has recently been revised by major banks like HSBC, which now anticipates that rates will remain unchanged until April 2026. Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, is looking for a rate cut in December. These shifts are largely influenced by persistent inflation, which continues to disrupt any clear trends for GBP.
In contrast, the Polish zloty has faced its own challenges, particularly following the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) cut of the benchmark interest rate to 5.0% in July. With weaker economic data and declining inflation leading to speculation about further cuts, the zloty has experienced depreciation. Analysts have pointed to political instability following recent elections as a contributor to the currency's volatility, alongside external trade tensions. UBS's revised forecast for the zloty highlights the expected influence of these issues, projecting the EUR/PLN rate to reach 4.25 through Q2 2026.
Collectively, these factors suggest a cautious outlook for the GBP against the PLN. The UK’s fiscal concerns and the potential for BoE rate stability contrast with the NBP's easing stance, positioning the zloty for possible further weakness amid a challenging domestic environment. Investors may want to closely monitor both currencies as upcoming economic indicators and policy decisions could drive additional fluctuations in the exchange rate.
