Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current GBP/PLN sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE remains on a cautious path with expectations of a couple of rate cuts in 2026, while the Polish central bank has paused cuts and kept policy tighter, leaving GBP sensitivity to UK data.
- Risk appetite: firmer global mood tends to lift PLN, which can cap upside moves in GBP/PLN when risk appetite improves.
- One macro factor: Poland’s economy is projected to grow strongly in 2026, backed by EU funds and a supportive labor market.
Range: GBP/PLN is likely to drift within the three-month range, with occasional tests of the upper end as market buzz shifts toward risk-on or away from Brexit headlines.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: UK data surprises to the upside and BoE signals slower pace of rate cuts, pushing the pound higher against the zloty.
- Downside risk: PLN strengthens further on robust Polish growth or policy clarity, pressuring GBP/PLN lower.