GBP/PLN Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate trades above its recent average and is near recent highs, yet lacks a clear current driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to keep rates steady while the National Bank of Poland may consider cuts, creating a GBP support scenario.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently seen some volatility, which could influence the zloty given Poland’s energy dependency.
- One macro factor: Recent data shows UK manufacturing growth has gained momentum, which could offer some support for the pound in the near term.
Range: The GBP/PLN is likely to hold within its recent trading range, with no strong indicators pushing it towards the extremes.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprise hawkish signal from the Bank of England regarding future rate policy could boost the pound.
- Downside risk: Any sign of deterioration in the UK economic outlook, particularly regarding manufacturing, could weaken GBP.