GBP/PLN Outlook:
The GBP/PLN rate is likely to move sideways as it is currently near its 90-day average and positioned in the mid-range of the recent trading limits. A lack of clear drivers is keeping the exchange rate stable.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England has signaled a dovish policy, potentially leading to future interest rate cuts, while the National Bank of Poland is expected to maintain steady rates.
- Risk/commodities: Currently, oil prices are steady, which limits any significant shifts in the GBP/PLN exchange rate, reflected in stable global economic conditions.
- One macro factor: Political instability within Poland's ruling coalition adds uncertainty to the PLN outlook, impacting its performance against the GBP.
Range:
Expect the GBP/PLN to continue holding within its recent range, displaying limited volatility.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sudden shift in BoE policy or stronger-than-expected UK economic data could support the GBP.
- Downside risk: Further political instability in Poland could weigh on the PLN, devaluing it against the GBP.