Recent forecasts for the GBP to PLN exchange rate highlight a complex interplay of factors influenced by the monetary policies of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the National Bank of Poland (NBP).
The British Pound (GBP) has shown signs of strengthening, particularly following the BoE’s interest rate decision. Though the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in December, analysts noted that the tone of the policy statement suggested future rate cuts may be more measured. Additionally, the inflation rate in the UK has recently increased to 2.6%, which could maintain pressure on the BoE's policy decisions moving forward. Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded to 0.75% for 2025, which, while worrisome, may lend some temporary support to the GBP if it helps maintain a cautious interest rate trajectory.
On the other hand, the Polish Zloty (PLN) is experiencing changes predominantly driven by the NBP's monetary policy. The NBP has recently initiated a cautious easing cycle, reducing the benchmark interest rate from 5.75% to 5.25% earlier this year, with further cuts anticipated, subject to economic indicators. Inflation in Poland has decreased to 2.4%, which aligns closely with the NBP's target and has been attributed to lower energy prices and wage growth. This positive inflation trend may support the zloty in the near term.
Current exchange rate data shows that GBP to PLN is trading at 4.8306, slightly below its three-month average. The price has exhibited stability within a 2.6% range, indicating limited volatility. As UK retail sales figures are set to be released, forecasters are keenly observing any signs of growth that could bolster the pound.
Given these dynamics, markets expect that the GBP may have some resilience against the PLN, though the anticipated changes in Polish interest rates and the improving inflation outlook could allow the zloty to remain competitive. As such, individuals and businesses should closely monitor these economic signals, as they may provide opportunities for cost savings in international transactions.
