Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, current GBP/WST is below the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE remains cautious on rate cuts while Samoa's CBS tightens liquidity, widening the policy outlook gap and weighing on GBP versus WST.
- Macro factor: Samoa’s growth forecast and CBS liquidity tightening are shaping the Tala, supporting WST and leaving GBP relatively softer.
Range: GBP/WST is likely to drift within the 3-month range, staying near the lower end with occasional tests of the lower bound.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: UK data surprises to the upside or BoE signals a slower pace of easing, lifting GBP.
- Downside risk: Samoa’s liquidity tightening strengthens the Tala and a stronger growth outlook weigh on GBP/WST.