Recent forecasts for the HUF to USD exchange rate indicate significant influences from both local and global factors. The US dollar has shown strength recently, bolstered by safe-haven flows and a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Expectations of new trade agreements before the upcoming tariff deadlines have contributed to the dollar's appreciation. However, analysts caution that if these expected trade deals do not meet market expectations, it may lead to downward pressure on the USD.
The Hungarian forint, while recently benefiting from a hawkish monetary policy stance by the National Bank of Hungary, is forecasted to weaken in the medium term due to ongoing issues within Hungary's economy, including inflation concerns and fiscal risks. Although the forint has strengthened recently, with prices trading near 0.002924 HUF per USD—3.1% above its three-month average—most experts agree that the HUF faces challenges.
As geopolitical events, particularly those tied to fiscal policies in Europe and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, unfold, they are likely to exert continued pressure on the forint. The potential for the EUR/HUF exchange rate to exceed 410 in the latter half of the year highlights the anticipated weakening of the forint against its peers.
Overall, while the USD's strength continues to resonate amidst global uncertainties and local economic signals, the outlook for the HUF suggests potential declines driven by internal economic difficulties. Investors and businesses should remain vigilant of developments from both the US and Hungarian economies, as external and local factors will play pivotal roles in the currency dynamics moving forward.