Forecasts for NZD to THB
Recent forecasts for the NZD to THB exchange rate indicate a challenging environment for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), which has faced pressure from risk aversion in markets. Analysts note the currency's vulnerability as a risk-sensitive asset, with fluctuations likely to be influenced by shifts in market sentiment as well as upcoming economic indicators like the manufacturing PMI. As the NZD translates to approximately 19.49 THB, it has recently reached 14-day lows, presenting a price just below its 3-month average. Over the recent period, NZD/THB has maintained a relatively stable trading range of 5.3%, hovering between 19.04 and 20.04.
A significant contributor to the NZD's challenging outlook is the potential impact of increased tariffs following the possibility of another Trump presidency. Economists warn that new and harsher tariffs on major trading partners, particularly Europe and China, could suppress demand for key commodities, further dragging down the NZD. Additionally, the correlation between NZD/USD and AUD/USD suggests that movements in the Australian dollar could mirror trends in the New Zealand dollar due to their shared commodity market dependence and geographical proximity.
On the Thai baht (THB) front, recent developments indicate a decline in confidence among emerging Asian currencies, exacerbated by rising tariff tensions. The US's imposition of a 36% reciprocal tariff on Thai goods as part of a broader trade conflict has added to the downward pressure on the baht, which has recently slumped alongside regional peers such as the South Korean won. Projections for the THB are clouded by these trade uncertainties, especially as regional central banks lower interest rates to boost growth, which could further weaken the baht.
Additionally, movements in the oil market could influence the THB value. Current oil prices at 74.23 USD indicate a rise of 10.9% over their 3-month average, with a notable volatility range between 60.14 and 75.02 USD. Given Thailand's position as a net oil importer, elevated oil prices can create further pressures on the THB, particularly in the context of already strained trade balances due to tariffs.
Overall, both the NZD and THB are operating under pressures from international trade dynamics, heightened by global market sentiment and commodity price fluctuations. Traders and businesses engaged in international transactions should closely monitor these factors, as they will likely shape future exchange rate movements and impact transaction costs.