The exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the Thai baht (THB) has recently seen significant fluctuations, with the NZD trading at 90-day lows near 19.09, which is 2.3% below its three-month average of 19.54. Analysts highlight that the NZD has been affected by mixed market sentiment and broader risk appetite, influenced in part by developments surrounding US-China trade tensions.
Recent consumer confidence figures from New Zealand could lend support to the NZD if they indicate an improvement in economic morale. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the potential for new tariffs under a possible Trump presidency, could dampen demand for key commodities essential to the NZD. Since the NZD and AUD often move in tandem due to their geographic and commodity market dependencies, any weakness in the Australian dollar may further affect the kiwi’s performance.
The THB is similarly impacted by international developments, particularly with the US imposing a 36% reciprocal tariff on goods from Thailand. This escalates concerns over a broader trade war and has contributed to a negative outlook for emerging Asian currencies, including the THB. Recent data shows Thai baht weakening alongside other regional currencies, which have dropped about 2% in response to the trade climate.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices can affect the THB, with current prices at $69.67, representing a 2.5% increase above its three-month average of $67.98. The volatility in oil prices, which have swung within a 31.1% range from $60.14 to $78.85, is a crucial factor for trade balance and currency valuation.
Overall, currency experts suggest that continued geopolitical tensions and market risk sentiment will play a vital role in shaping the NZD/THB exchange rate in the coming weeks. Individuals and businesses involved in international transactions should monitor these developments closely to optimize their currency exchange strategies.