Outlook
The NZD is likely to stay volatile as markets weigh risk sentiment and the path for RBNZ policy. With domestic data sparse today, moves will hinge on global headlines and trade news. A risk-on mood could push the kiwi toward the top end of its recent ranges, while renewed risk-off or a policy path more aggressive than priced could weigh on the currency. Support from high dairy prices and resilient export demand provides a partial cushion.
Key drivers
- Risk-on mood initially supported NZD, though intraday volatility underscored ongoing sentiment sensitivity.
- The RBNZ has signaled potential 50 basis-point rate cuts at the next meeting (markets see cuts; per Benzinga).
- U.S. tariff relief on NZ food products in 2025 supports export earnings and may underpin the NZD.
- Renewed US-China trade tensions continue to influence global risk appetite and currency volatility.
- High dairy prices bolster New Zealand’s export income, providing some NZD resilience.
Range
NZD/USD at 0.6041; 3-month average 0.5821 (3.8% above); range 0.5590–0.6077 (8.7% swing).
NZD/EUR at 0.5090; 3-month average 0.4968 (2.5% above); range 0.4850–0.5122 (5.6% swing).
NZD/GBP at 0.4425; 3-month average 0.4333 (2.1% above); range 0.4268–0.4441 (4.1% swing).
NZD/JPY at 92.25; 3-month average 90.88 (1.5% above); range 87.70–94.79 (8.1% swing).
What could change it
- Unexpected RBNZ policy outcome (larger or smaller cut, or a hold) altering rate expectations.
- A clear shift in global risk appetite driven by US-China policy moves or other major macro events.
- Persistent or shifting dairy price trends (continued strength or a reversal) impacting export income.
- Changes in US trade policy affecting NZ exports (new tariffs or relief measures).
- Domestic NZ data surprises (inflation, GDP) that alter the rate outlook.
