Bias: The PHP/USD outlook is range-bound as the current exchange rate is below the 90-day average and within the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to cut rates further, while the Federal Reserve might ease its stance, creating differences in monetary policy actions.
• Risk/commodities: Recent fluctuations in oil prices could impact the Philippine economy, specifically its balance of payments, leading to volatility in the peso.
• One macro factor: A significant deterioration in the Philippines’ balance of payments, contributing to a $5 billion deficit in 2025, indicates underlying economic challenges.
Range: The PHP/USD is likely to hold steady within its recent range, but movement towards either extreme cannot be ruled out.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected increase in foreign investment could bolster the peso.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions could strengthen the USD against the peso.