The market bias for the PHP to USD exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential is narrowing as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut rates while expectations for the Federal Reserve to enact further monetary easing are growing.
- Global economic growth is improving, but this may lead to volatility as commodity prices shift, potentially influencing USD strength.
- The Philippines is facing economic challenges, including a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts, which could impact investor sentiment.
In the near term, expect the PHP to trade within a limited range, potentially showing slight weakness based on recent performance levels.
Upside risks include a significant improvement in domestic economic policies boosting investor confidence. Conversely, downside risks persist if further depreciation occurs due to additional Fed rate cuts or worsening economic conditions in the Philippines.