Canadian dollar has recovered somewhat to 1.30 in mid-2022, against the greenback, since its mid-2021 lows of 1.20.
The Ukrainian crisis and the risk on-off market are pushing the Canadian dollar rate up and down in a range around 0.7850 to the US dollar (1 USD = 1.27 CAD).
Volatile oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have lead analysts to predict large price movements to continue for the Canadian Dollar.
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The Canadian dollar had a difficult end to 2021 being weighed down by slumping crude oil prices, one of the currency’s biggest drivers for gains against the USD and the view that US inflation and interest rates were heading up.
Many market participants have been heavily favouring the CAD over the USD, so any unwinding of these positions will leave the CAD vulnerable to a sell-off, reducing demand and decreasing its value.
Given the outperformance of the CAD in 2021, it was no surprise to see some consolidation from late October as investors took profits. However, by the end of the year the gloss was well and truly off the loonie with it falling to a 1-YEAR LOW below 78 cents.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine the CAD was being supported by expectations of domestic interest rate hikes – and the oil price was a key driver of CAD strength at the start of the year.
Since the start of the Russia/Ukrainian war the risk on-off market are pushing the Canadian dollar rate up and down in a range around 0.7850 to the US dollar (1 USD = 1.27 CAD).
The US Dollar has proven itself to be a safe haven amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict as investors seek refuge from the uncertainty.
A clear reflection of this is that the US Dollar index (measure of the USD strength against basket of currencies) is approaching 20 year highs.
Note that forecasts and predictions for the USD/CAD exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the Canadian and US economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coronavirus pandemic.
You can read more about other CAD exchange rate forecasts here CAD Forecasts for 2021.
Disclaimer: Please note any provider recommendations, currency forecasts or any opinions of our authors should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.