Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, as USD/CHF sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the three‑month range amid modest gains.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to cut rates toward neutral in 2026 while the SNB keeps policy at 0% with a risk of negative rates if the franc strengthens.
- US labor market data: Upcoming nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures could shift Fed expectations and influence USD direction, especially if wage growth remains firm.
- Eurozone growth: Stronger euro-area growth could ease CHF strength and reduce SNB tightening pressure.
Range: USD/CHF is likely to drift within the recent three‑month range, spending time around the middle to upper area, with occasional pokes toward the edges.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or Fed signals that rates stay higher for longer, supported by wage data.
- Downside risk: softer US data or Fed signaling rate cuts, and steps by the SNB to curb franc strength.
