The relative response to the coronavirus pandemic by the Eurozone and US combined with US election uncertainty are pushing down the USD to EUR exchange rate in the second half of 2020.
The US dollar strengthened against EUR after the euro touched $US1.20 early in September.
The trigger for the pull-back were worries in the market that the EUR rise had come too fast and strong for the ECB’s liking.
Still Credit Agricole see the Euro hitting US1.20 by the end of 2020 due to a growing diversification away from the greenback and more positive news out of Europe.
August was a quiet month for the shared currency with a sideways price action of the euro versus the US dollar and other majors, such as the Aussie and Canadian dollar. September has the potential to be more volatile, especially due to the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. Europe has come together to provide huge stimulus and grants to countries stricken by the virus but there are suggestions among investors that the rally seen off the back of this positive news may have stalled. In the short term the euro will be susceptible to swings. In the long term there are positive expectations for the currency. The long term make-or-break level for the EUR/USD rate continues at 1.18. The major risk to September outlook is the increasing concern around a second wave of infections. Daily new cases are increasing in Italy, France, Spain and Germany. Despite the concerns that a second wave of the Coronavirus will hit Europe, the EUR/USD should remain rangebound 1.1700 – 1.2080. September Currency Update
Note that forecasts and predictions for the USD/EUR exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Eurozone economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
You can read about other USD exchange rate forecasts here USD Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
This is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider an exchange rate's relative value is to look at the rate's history. The following table looks at the change in the USD to EUR exchange rate to the present day for periods going back upto 10 years:
|18 Sep 2020 : 0.8446||1.8% ▲||1 Week|
|26 Aug 2020 : 0.8446||1.8% ▲||30 Days|
|27 Jun 2020 : 0.8914||3.5% ▼||90 Days|
|26 Sep 2019 : 0.9155||6.1% ▼||1 Year|
|27 Sep 2015 : 0.8935||3.8% ▼||5 Years|
|28 Sep 2010 : 0.7374||16.6% ▲||10 Years|
USD/EUR 10 year historic rates & change to 25-Sep-2020 : 0.8598