In Q2 2021 the Euro has re-gained strength versus the greenback, a reverse on Q1 where the reflation trade — an increase in US interest rates — had pushed up the USD exchange rate against most currencies.
USDEUR at 0.8312is just below its 90-day average, range 0.8214-0.8534.
Euro to US dollar Forecasts
Goldman Sachs see the EUR/USD rate hitting 1.25 (USD/EUR below 0.80) in the next 3 months, up from their previous prediction of 1.21 dollars to the euro.
ING see the ECB decision to lean against the rising bond yields as a positive for EUR/USD. They expect EUR/USD to move above 1.2500 this summer.
Swiss bank UBS see the EUR/USD rate to rise near 1.27 (USD/EUR below 0.78) by the end of 2021 as the world recovers from the pandemic and has less need for USD as a safe haven.
Other optimistic forecasters, believing the ECB’s support of the eurozone economy is working, suggest EUR/USD will test new highs at the very beginning of 2021. If this early test holds they believe EUR/USD will have a good chance of a strong upside trend against the U.S. dollar this year.
Note that forecasts and predictions for the USD/EUR exchange rate change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Eurozone economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
Whether the euro will rise or drop in the future against the US dollar is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current USD-EUR relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
12 Apr 2021
20 Mar 2021
19 Jan 2021
19 Apr 2020
20 Apr 2016
22 Apr 2011
USD/EUR 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Apr-2021 : 0.8307
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