USD/INR forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Indian economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
Since INR’s high against the US dollar in October of below 73 Indian rupee has dropped back to between 74 and 75.
At the time of writing USDINR at 74.14 is a little above its 90-DAY average, range 72.96-75.
This was after being up around 3% against the US dollar (in August) since its low of 77 versus the greenback in April and is gaining favour from bank commentators such as HSBC due to the attraction of the carry trade – the ability to earn higher interest when holding INR versus other major currencies.
Unlike Latin American countries, which continue to benefit from a U.S. recovery, Asian countries are vulnerable to economic austerity in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East due to the drop in demand for Oil during the Covid pandemic. More than 60% of remittances to India, Bangladesh and Pakistan come from Gulf countries.
The USD experienced a sell-off in early November as investors moved away from the safe haven of the dollar and into riskier assets, off the back of Biden winning the presidential election and the positive news of COVID-19 vaccine testing. November Currency Update
The Indian rupee was Asia’s worse performing currency in 2020, but compared to previous crises has performed relatively well.
Get more details in the article Indian Rupee Forecasts.
The foreign exchange market convention for USD/INR is to quote Indian Rupee as Rupee per US dollar. Thus a higher USD/INR rate actually means one rupee is worth less, that is you can buy more rupee for 1 USD.
You can read about other USD exchange rate forecasts here US Dollar Trends and Forecasts for 2020.
Whether the US dollar will rise or drop in the future versus the rupee is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current USD-INR relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
12 Jan 2021
|0.1% ▲||1 Week|
20 Dec 2020
|0.5% ▼||30 Days|
21 Oct 2020
|0.7% ▼||90 Days|
20 Jan 2020
|3% ▲||1 Year|
21 Jan 2016
|7.8% ▲||5 Years|
22 Jan 2011
|60.4% ▲||10 Years|
USD/INR 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Jan-2021 : 73.1936