USD/INR forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Indian economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the Coranavirus pandemic.
USDINR at 75.41has risen 3.0% above its 90-day average, range 72.29-75.41.
Alerts:1D▲+1.2% | 90D▲HIGH |
The RBI’s QE announcement ended the Indian rupee’s good run versus the U.S. dollar sending it back below 74 to the greenback.
The rupee plunged 2.2% in late February towards 74 per US dollar but in the weeks since this “market tantrum” it had resumed back to its long slow track towards 72 to the greenback until the RBI’s QE bond buying news.
Emerging markets are facing an exodus of cash as the surge in Treasury yields brings back memories of the taper tantrum of 2013.
The dollar ended last week falling to 1 Month lows. Risk sentiment tilted towards higher risk assets and currencies as US data showed strong signs of growth in several key sectors of the economy. Low US Treasury yields of 1.7% make the dollar less attractive in comparison to other investments. USD Markets
INR had been rising steadily back near 72.3 per US dollar matching its previous 1-Year high.
This gaining of favour was attributed by bank commentators such as HSBC due to the attraction of the carry trade – the ability to earn higher interest when holding INR versus other major currencies.
Unlike Latin American countries, which continue to benefit from a U.S. recovery, Asian countries are vulnerable to economic austerity in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East due to the drop in demand for Oil during the Covid pandemic. More than 60% of remittances to India, Bangladesh and Pakistan come from Gulf countries.
The Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a huge government bond purchase programme in April has ended the Indian rupee’s resilience to U.S. dollar strength and other currencies such as GBP and AUD. INR Markets
The foreign exchange market convention for USD/INR is to quote Indian Rupee as Rupee per US dollar. Thus a higher USD/INR rate actually means one rupee is worth less, that is you can buy more rupee for 1 USD.
Whether the US dollar will rise or drop in the future versus the rupee is a difficult question and the answer really depends on many factors. The best way to consider the current USD-INR relative value is to check the change in the exchange over a range of periods to the present day. The below table does this for periods going back 10 years.
12 Apr 2021
20 Mar 2021
19 Jan 2021
19 Apr 2020
20 Apr 2016
22 Apr 2011
USD/INR 10 year historic rates & change to 19-Apr-2021 : 74.8758
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