USD/QAR Outlook: Likely to move sideways, as the exchange rate is near its recent average and subject to mixed signals.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts, which could weaken the US dollar compared to the stable Qatari Riyal, linked to its pegged exchange rate.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their average, which positively affects Qatar’s economy and could support the QAR's stability.
• One macro factor: Qatar's GDP is projected to rise significantly in 2026, driven by growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, enhancing the local currency's outlook.
Range: The USD/QAR is anticipated to drift within the recent range, maintaining stability without significant movement either way.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprisingly strong inflation report in the US could bolster the dollar.
• Downside risk: A significant increase in geopolitical tensions affecting US interests may further pressure the dollar.