USD/QAR Outlook: Likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its 90-day average with mixed signals ahead.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts contrasts with Qatar's stable monetary policy, maintaining the currency peg to the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices remain elevated, which tends to support the Qatari economy, though volatility may cause fluctuations in the QAR.
• One macro factor: Qatar's GDP growth is forecasted to rise due to expansion in non-hydrocarbon sectors, reinforcing the QAR's stability.
Range: The USD/QAR is likely to hold within its recent 3-month range as factors remain balanced.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US PCE price index could boost the USD by altering Fed rate cut expectations.
• Downside risk: Heightened geopolitical tensions may increase USD selling pressure, impacting its outlook against the QAR.