USD/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve has paused its rate-cutting cycle, maintaining a higher interest rate compared to Qatar's stable policy, which supports the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above average, increasing revenue for Qatar and providing some support to the QAR while enhancing its economic stability.
• One macro factor: Qatar's international reserves have strengthened, enhancing the QAR’s financial position and stability in international markets.
Range: The USD/QAR is likely to hold its position within the recent 3-month range as both currencies exhibit stability.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger than expected U.S. economic report could bolster the USD further.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions could lead to a decrease in USD value as investors seek safer assets.
