Bias: Range-bound, current USD/QAR sits in the lower half of the 3-month range and shows no clear tilt vs the 90-day average, reflecting the currency peg (the fixed link to the dollar) and cautious positioning by traders.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: Fed easing in 2026 versus Qatar’s peg keeps USD/QAR moves modest, with Qatar’s policy alignment helping stability in the pair.
Oil: Oil near 90-day highs with swings; firmer oil supports USD demand in GCC trading.
Macro factor: Fed rate-cut expectations for 2026 shape the dollar, with US payrolls and inflation data adding further direction.
Range: likely to drift within the 3-month band, testing the lower edge but not breaking, as pegs curb large moves.
What could change it:
Upside risk: hawkish Fed signals or stronger US payrolls could push the dollar higher.
Downside risk: clearer easing in 2026 or softer US data could weigh on the dollar.
