USD/QAR Outlook: The outlook is likely to move sideways as the rate is near its recent average and mid-range, with mixed signals affecting both currencies.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve continues to guide rate cuts, which may weaken the US Dollar against the Qatari Riyal.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is performing above its recent average, contributing to the overall strength of Qatar’s economy and the QAR.
• One macro factor: Qatar's GDP is expected to grow, supported by gains in the non-hydrocarbon sectors, which should bolster confidence in the QAR.
Range: The USD/QAR is likely to hold steady within its recent range, maintaining fluctuations without testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising increase in US employment data could strengthen the USD significantly.
• Downside risk: Escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US could lead to a decline in the USD’s value.