The USD/QAR outlook is bullish-to-range-bound as the pair currently trades above its 90-day average and near the upper half of its recent 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates toward a neutral stance, which could support the USD if employment data remains strong.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above average, which generally favors the Qatari Riyal, given Qatar's economy is linked to oil revenues.
• One macro factor: Qatar's GDP is projected to grow significantly in 2026, indicating a strengthening economic outlook that could support the Riyal.
Range: The USD/QAR is likely to hold its current position, as it has traded within a stable 0.6% range recently.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger US labor market data that boosts Fed rate hike expectations could support the USD further.
• Downside risk: Dovish comments from Fed officials might weaken the USD, leading to a potential shift in the exchange rate.