USD/QAR Outlook: The outlook is likely to move sideways as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve has paused its rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate, while Qatar's strong financial reserves support the stability of the QAR.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their average, enhancing revenue for Qatar, which positively impacts the QAR's value.
- One macro factor: Qatar's international reserves have shown a positive increase, reinforcing confidence in the QAR's strength.
Range: Expect the USD/QAR to hold within the current range, with potential slight fluctuations.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprising increase in US job growth could elevate USD demand.
- Downside risk: Heightened geopolitical tensions affecting the US could decrease demand for the USD, impacting the exchange rate negatively.