Bias: Range-bound, with USD/QAR near its ninety-day average and in the middle of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed path hints at easing later in the year, while Qatar keeps the dollar peg, keeping the policy stance broadly aligned and limiting large moves in USD/QAR.
- Oil: Oil remains above its moving average with notable volatility, a classic driver of USD demand and support for a firmer USD against the QAR in a peg framework.
- Macro: Qatar’s 2026 growth outlook was revised higher, reflecting strength in the non-hydrocarbon sector and underpinning stability for the peg.
Range: It is likely to stay within the recent three-month band, drifting around the middle rather than testing the edges.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payrolls and a more hawkish tilt from the Fed could push the dollar higher.
- Downside risk: clearer Fed easing or softer US data could weigh on the dollar and push USD/QAR toward the lower end.
