The USD to VND exchange rate has seen fluctuations recently, driven by a mix of domestic and international factors. The US dollar is currently appreciating and trading near 30-day highs at approximately 26,383 VND, reflecting a stable range over the past month. This follows a cautious market environment where investors are favoring the safe-haven currency due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
Analysts noted that the recent minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting reinforced a hawkish stance, suggesting potential interest rate adjustments that could further influence the USD's strength. The upcoming release of September's non-farm payroll report is anticipated to impact investor sentiment significantly, as any signs of weakness could reignite expectations for a rate cut.
On the VND side, experts predict a depreciation of about 3% against the US dollar in 2025, primarily influenced by the strong USD and broader global economic policies. The State Bank of Vietnam has intervened in the currency market, selling approximately $1.5 billion in forward contracts in September to stabilize the exchange rate amid pressures stemming from US tariffs on Vietnamese goods. This move is designed to support Vietnam’s exports in the face of external economic challenges.
Moreover, the Fed's recent rate cut in September has provided some breathing room for the VND, allowing Vietnam to stabilize its economy. However, trade tensions with the US, particularly the imposition of a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, have put further downward pressure on the VND, prompting adjustments to maintain competitiveness.
In summary, while the USD is expected to remain strong in the short term, the VND faces challenges that may lead to depreciation in the future. Both currency movements will be sensitive to upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments, making ongoing monitoring essential for businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions.
