Recent forecasts surrounding the USD to VND exchange rate indicate a complex interplay of factors influencing both currencies. The US dollar has recently experienced fluctuations, particularly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at potential rate cuts, which left the dollar under pressure. Analysts now suggest that the USD may remain volatile, especially as market sentiment shifts in response to risk appetite and the lack of substantial US economic releases.
On the other hand, various developments are anticipated to influence the Vietnamese đồng's trajectory. Experts at Vietcombank Securities Company forecast a 3% depreciation of the VND against the USD for the year, primarily driven by the stronger dollar and prevailing global economic conditions. This depreciation corresponds with market analysts suggesting the Vietnamese central bank may enact policy rate hikes to stabilize the currency, having previously intervened by selling substantial reserves to curb declines.
Notably, the current trading level of the USD at 26,368 VND is only 0.8% above its three-month average of 26,164 VND, indicating a stable range with minor fluctuations over the past months. This stability, however, may be tested as external factors, such as US-China trade tensions and evolving economic policies in Vietnam, continue to unfold.
In summary, the exchange rate between the USD and VND is expected to be shaped by a combination of US monetary policy shifts, Vietnamese economic reforms, and broader market dynamics. Both the USD and the VND are navigating challenging environments, with potential implications for businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions. Monitoring these developments closely will be crucial for effective currency risk management.
