The USD to VND exchange rate trend appears bearish in the near term.
Current interest rate differentials suggest that the USD may weaken as the Federal Reserve plans to implement further rate cuts through mid-2026. In contrast, Vietnam's robust economic growth target of at least 10% for 2026 supports a stronger VND, alongside stable inflation projections around 4%. Recent data shows the USD/VND rate at a 90-day low near 26,285, which is just under its 3-month average, reflecting a narrow trading range.
In the upcoming months, the expected trading range may involve fluctuations around current levels, influenced by the interplay of growth and inflation dynamics in both economies. Any confirmation of improved consumer sentiment in the U.S. could lend temporary support to the USD, while potential political developments in Vietnam, particularly the upcoming legislative elections, pose a downside risk that may affect investor confidence.
With ongoing changes in global monetary policy and economic targets, both currencies will be closely watched for further developments impacting exchange rates.
