The recent exchange rate forecasts for the USD to VND currency pair indicate a complex interplay of factors influencing both currencies. The US dollar has been facing significant challenges as concerns surrounding a potential government shutdown and weaker labor market data have led to diminished investor confidence. Analysts noted that the delays in jobless claims and payroll figures have compounded the pressure on the dollar, with a disappointing ADP employment report exacerbating the situation. However, there is hope that upcoming data, such as the ISM services PMI, may provide some relief if it shows continued strength in the US service sector.
On the other hand, the Vietnamese đồng is projected to face depreciation against the US dollar, with Vietcombank Securities Company forecasting a decline of approximately 3% in 2025. This forecast is influenced by the overall strength of the US dollar and broader global economic trends. The State Bank of Vietnam has already intervened in the market, selling around $1.5 billion to stabilize the đồng amid ongoing fluctuations. In addition, new regulations on large money transfers are set to enhance financial transparency and manage capital flows, further affecting liquidity in the currency markets.
In terms of recent price data, the USD to VND rate is currently at 30-day lows near 26,364, which is just above its three-month average. The currency pair has maintained a relatively stable trading range of 1.2% from 26,114 to 26,434 recently. Given these dynamics, both the US and Vietnamese economies are gearing up for potential shifts in currency valuation, driven by domestic policies and global economic influences.
