The exchange rate forecast for the USD to VND suggests a complex interplay between the two currencies driven by various macroeconomic factors. Recent trends indicate that the US dollar has faced some pressure, softening amid wider market corrections and concerns over the sustainability of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. Analysts have noted that without significant data from the US to guide movements, the dollar's trajectory may largely depend on broader market trends.
Currently, the USD/VND exchange rate is trading near its 14-day highs at approximately 26,336, which aligns with the three-month average. The range has shown stability, fluctuating by just 0.8%. This stability, however, exists against a backdrop where the Vietnamese Đồng has experienced a notable depreciation against major currencies. Reports suggest that the VND is forecasted to depreciate by about 3% against the USD this year, as noted by experts from Vietcombank Securities Company. This expectation is influenced by a strong dollar and broader global economic conditions.
Specific factors like the recent imposition of US tariffs on imports, particularly affecting Vietnamese exports, have also contributed to pressures on the VND. In response, the Vietnamese government may consider currency depreciation strategies to maintain export competitiveness. Furthermore, developments such as the upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve leadership transitions could significantly impact the USD's outlook.
In this context, while the US dollar may be facing short-term softness, structural challenges for the VND, combined with anticipated Federal Reserve policies, suggest a cautious outlook for anyone engaging in transactions between these two currencies. Businesses and individuals should stay informed on forthcoming economic releases and geopolitical developments, as these could lead to shifts in the currency dynamics in the coming weeks.
