The recent outlook for the USD to VND exchange rate reflects a mix of influences impacting both currencies. As of early November 2025, the US dollar has faced volatility stemming from underwhelming U.S. jobs data, which raised concerns about the resilience of the labor market. Analysts note that while the USD had initially benefited from safe-haven demand amid fears of market corrections in AI-linked stocks, it subsequently declined. The upcoming release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes is expected to be crucial; should Federal policymakers adopt a hawkish stance, it could bolster USD sentiment.
Key factors affecting the USD include expected U.S. inflation data, upcoming inflation reports anticipated to influence Fed interest rates, and ongoing trade tensions with China, which have led to significant market uncertainties. Furthermore, experts have raised concerns regarding global dedollarization trends, as countries explore alternatives to the USD as a reserve currency, influenced by U.S. foreign and economic policies.
Conversely, forecasts for the Vietnamese đồng suggest a potential depreciation of approximately 3% against the USD in 2025, driven by the strong USD and international economic pressures. The State Bank of Vietnam has intervened in the currency market, selling forward contracts to stabilize the VND amid exchange rate pressures. Moreover, recent developments, including U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods, have contributed to a weaker VND as Vietnam seeks to maintain export competitiveness.
Currently, the USD to VND is trading at around 30-day highs near 26,383, aligning with its three-month average and reflecting recent market stability within a 0.5% range. As analysts continue to monitor these developments, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should remain attentive to the evolving dynamics that could influence exchange rates.
