Recent forecasts and market updates indicate a complex landscape for the USD to VND exchange rate, with the USD experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by both domestic and international factors. Currently, the USD is trading at approximately 26,354 VND, close to its 30-day highs and within a stable range of 26,272 to 26,434, reflecting recent risk-on market sentiment as demand for the safe-haven currency diminishes.
Analysts highlight that the USD's downward trend is linked to improving risk appetite, particularly following significant political developments like the end of the recent government shutdown. Despite this supportive environment, the outlook for the USD remains cautious with major economic releases expected soon, including crucial inflation data that may sway Federal Reserve policy and, consequently, the dollar's strength.
Simultaneously, the VND faces pressures from various factors, including an anticipated 3% depreciation against the USD due to a stronger dollar and external economic policies. Additionally, the State Bank of Vietnam's intervention through the sale of $1.5 billion in forward contracts to stabilize the currency amid these pressures has been highlighted by experts as a temporary measure.
Further complicating the outlook, recent developments such as a 20% tariff imposed by the US on Vietnamese goods have negatively impacted the VND. Although the July tariff contributed to this depreciation, the subsequent Fed rate cut has given Vietnam some breathing space, allowing the VND to remain stable despite external pressures.
In summary, while the USD currently enjoys a favorable position against the VND, external factors such as the US-China trade tensions, inflation expectations, and overall market dynamics will be critical in shaping future movements. Stakeholders should continue to monitor these developments for any potential impact on international transactions involving the USD and VND.
