This is the current AUD-CNY mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-CNY exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs CNY, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Chinese Yuan news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
11-January-19: A number of important developments in 2018 worked to reduce demand for the yuan, which lost 5 percent of its value relative to the dollar and 1 percent versus the euro.
Chief among negative developments was Washington’s agenda of trade protectionism. Tariffs make Chinese goods more expensive to American buyers, which lessens their appeal and necessitates a weaker yuan.
A tumbling Chinese stock market didn’t help the yuan either, as investors had little incentive to buy into Chinese companies and therefore one less reason to exchange local currency into yuan. The Shanghai Composite index fell 24 percent in 2018.
2019: The yuan has gotten off to a flyer in 2019. Following constructive trade talks between Washington and Beijing, the yuan traded at a 5-month high of ¥6.75 per dollar on the day of this report. The yuan is, however, still expected to weaken beyond the ¥7 mark against the dollar within the next 6 months, per a January poll of FX professionals. To reach ¥7 would be to have the yuan at its weakest level since 2008.
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