Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, current AUD/USD sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The RBA is signaling potential hikes in 2026 while the Fed is expected to ease toward neutral policy, supporting AUD.
• China demand: China's uneven rebound dampens demand for Australian exports, weighing on commodity-linked AUD.
• AU data: Upcoming CPI and employment figures in Australia could steer near-term moves.
Range: Likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the upper end if risk appetite improves.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger-than-expected Australian inflation data or hawkish guidance from the RBA.
• Downside risk: softer Chinese demand for commodities or a stronger US dollar.