Forecasts for AUD to USD
The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently come under significant selling pressure, primarily triggered by disappointing GDP figures for the third quarter, which fell short of expectations. This data has led to speculation among FX analysts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025. The current AUD to USD exchange rate stands at 0.6436, which is 3.1% lower than its three-month average of 0.6639. Market sentiment remains cautious, as upcoming trade figures could further amplify the pressure on the AUD if export growth continues to decline.
Conversely, while the US dollar (USD) also faced some headwinds from lackluster economic data, it gained momentum following Donald Trump's election victory and the accompanying expectations of rising inflation and sustained interest rates. Economists suggest that the USD's current strength could bolster its position further in the upcoming months. Moreover, concerns regarding tariffs on key Australian trading partners, particularly China, could dampen demand for the AUD, especially if China's economic indicators do not show signs of recovery. Analysts suggest that stronger trade data from China, coupled with fiscal stimulus, could potentially lift the AUD back toward the 0.68-0.69 range against the USD, but this will heavily depend on the geopolitical climate and market reactions to Trump's policies.
