Bias: bullish-to-range-bound; current level is above the 90-day average and sits in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: RBA signals possible rate hikes in 2026, widening the gap to a Fed seen moving toward easing.
- Risk/commodities: China’s uneven rebound is weighing on demand for Australian ore and other exports, pressuring the AUD.
- Macro factor: AU CPI release in the first week may steer rate bets for the RBA.
Range: AUD/USD is likely to drift within the 3-month range, staying in the upper half.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: hotter-than-expected Australian CPI or jobs data could reinforce RBA tightening bets and lift the Aussie.
- Downside risk: stronger US data lifting the dollar could push AUD/USD lower.