This is the current EUR-GBP mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market EUR-GBP exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the EUR vs GBP, you should pay attention to both Euro and British Pound Sterling news and forecasts.
11-January-19: 2018 was a mixed year for the euro. A 4.6 percent loss versus the US dollar and a 3 percent loss versus the franc was offset by a near-6 percent gain versus the Australian dollar and small gains against the pound and Canadian dollar.
Risks to the euro in 2019 will include Brexit, slower economic growth and the Italian budget. The main supporting factor is the end of economic stimulus by the ECB, which may or may not be followed by an interest rate hike later in the year.
Forecasts: For the month of January, SEB recommend betting on euro depreciation versus JPY, SEK and NOK on grounds of seasonality.
In the months ahead, EUR/GBP should weaken from levels in the mid-£0.89s (as of January-11) according to Bank of America, since “all pathways are leading to a soft Brexit” — something that would be a shot in the arm to sterling.
For EUR/USD, both Danske Bank and Bank of America retain end-of-year forecasts of $1.25, from rates at the time of writing in the mid-$1.14s. $1.25 represents the equilibrium exchange rate for this pair, BAML researchers said.
16-January-19: Given Brexit uncertainties, 2018 wasn’t too bad for the pound. Although it lost 7.5 percent of its value against the dollar last year (it’s down 12 percent on pre-EU referendum levels), it only lost 1.9 percent against the euro and gained nearly 3 percent against the Australian dollar.
The pound was relatively robust throughout early to mid-January despite UK politics being in a state of disarray, and with all Brexit options still on the table.
Against the euro, sterling traded on the day of this report at a 7-week high of €1.13, and against the dollar, it bought $1.288—close to a 9-week high.
Sterling’s 2019 strength (albeit strength from low levels) following the massive parliamentary rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit deal was, analysts said, the result of an expectation among investors for Article 50 extensions, Brexit delays, a second referendum or soft-Brexit outcomes, rather than for “no deal.”
Impact of no-deal: The Bank of England has predicted a shocking 25 percent loss in the pound’s value in the event of a “disorderly” no-deal Brexit, under which there will be serious border delays and a marked loss of confidence in Britain’s financial institutions. In the more likely event of a milder, “disruptive” no-deal Brexit, under which goods face tariffs but flow somewhat easily, sterling still loses 15 percent, the BoE believes.
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