This is the current EUR-GBP mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market EUR-GBP exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the EUR vs GBP, you should pay attention to both Euro and British Pound Sterling news and forecasts.
Between November and February, the euro was remarkably stable relative to the US dollar, against which it traded for the most part between $1.125 and $1.155. In the days leading up to this report, in March, the euro broke downwards to a 21-month low of $1.118.
Further to Brexit uncertainty, euro weakness followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 at the earliest as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued weakness.”
ING analysts wrote in March that they expect the low-yielding euro to continue to depreciate against the dollar over the coming months. Danske Bank predicted a euro dip towards $1.1 before a rally over 3-6 months back into a $1.12-1.16 range.
The Brexit debacle continues, as does above-average volatility in the British pound. Until now, the UK government’s inability to make any decisions has been to sterling’s advantage, since this casts doubt on the delivery of Brexit and/or makes a softer Brexit more likely.
Sterling’s uptrend is evident from recent peaks against the dollar, coming in at $1.322 on January-25, at $1.335 on February-27, and at $1.338 on March-13. Sterling had been as low as $1.237 in early January. It was at $1.32 at the time of this report.
Increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit (potentially very bad for sterling) was the statement made on March-20 by EU Council President Donald Tusk, who said that the EU would agree to the Article 50 extension sought by the UK government only if British MPs first backed the current withdrawal agreement—the one that had twice been defeated by large parliamentary majorities.
Pound forecasts are futile given uncertainties over Brexit but estimates can be made for different outcomes. Currency analysts at HSBC said in February that sterling would be valued at levels near $1.10 in the event of no-deal, near $1.45 with a deal and at $1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.
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