EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook
29 May 2026 • 00:25 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 1.1610 – 1.1820
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
Currently, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1653, close to its 3-month average and near recent highs. Risk sentiment dominates, supported by geopolitical tensions and US dollar strength. Over the next few sessions, the pair may remain supported by risk-off conditions but could face pressure if US Treasury yields continue to decline, pushing the euro to weaken slightly.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to the US might find EUR to USD less favourable than recent levels if the pair drops further.
- Travellers: exchanging euros for US dollars may face less advantageous exchange rates if the euro weakens.
- Businesses: paying US dollar invoices with euros could see higher costs if euro selling pressure persists.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: US Treasury yields decline, reducing US dollar attractiveness relative to the euro.
- Risk/commodities: Global risk-off sentiment supports safe-haven currencies, pressuring risk-sensitive FX.
- Global factors: Worsening geopolitical tensions increase demand for the US dollar and other safe havens.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: Unexpected stabilization in US Treasury yields or easing geopolitical tensions.
- Downside risk: Accelerated US dollar gains from worsening risk sentiment or geopolitical escalation.
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