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Currency outlook EUR/USD

EUR to USD Forecasts – euro to US dollar

Latest EUR to USD forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for EUR/USD. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook

23 Jul 2026 • 00:25 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1411

📊 Forecast snapshot

  • Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
  • Expected range: 1.1160 – 1.1410
  • Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
  • 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound

Currently, EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1411, holding near its 90-day average. The pair remains within a narrow range, pressured by risk-off sentiment. Risk aversion and safe-haven flows are supporting the US dollar, while the euro stays supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. Near-term, conditions suggest the pair may continue to face downward pressure as risk sentiment remains cautious.

💸 Transfer implications

  • Expats: sending money to the US dollar may find current exchange rates slightly less favourable than recent levels.
  • Travellers: buying US dollar cash could face modestly weaker rates if risk conditions persist.
  • Businesses: paying USD invoices with euros might encounter a slightly less advantageous rate, reducing cost savings.

🧭 Key drivers

  • Rate gap: The ECB and Fed’s policy divergence is narrowing, but the US yield advantage still supports the dollar.
  • Risk/commodities: Safe-haven flows into USD are supported by geopolitical tensions and risk-off markets.
  • Global factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand continue to underpin USD strength.

⚠️ What could change it

  • Upside risk: A decline in geopolitical tensions or stabilization of risk appetite could strengthen the euro.
  • Downside risk: A further escalation in global tensions or a sharp worsening of risk sentiment could extend USD gains.

Compared to current conditions, shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs, especially for currency exchanges during this cautious phase.

 

EURUSD Bank Forecasts to end of the year

The outlook for EUR/USD is mixed among major banks as they provide varying forecasts for the end of the year. Bank of America anticipates a stronger dollar, expecting EUR/USD to reach 1.15, influenced by the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, ING forecasts the pair to rise to 1.18, expecting a softer dollar due to a more dovish Fed outlook and diminishing energy sensitivities. UBS maintains a more balanced view with the pair around 1.20, seeing risks evenly distributed.

Big bank views

  • Bank of America expects EUR/USD to end 2026 at 1.15, citing a stronger dollar.
  • ING projects EUR/USD to reach 1.18 by year-end, anticipating moderate USD depreciation.
  • UBS sees EUR/USD risks balanced around 1.20 through the end of 2026.

What could change the outlook

  • A shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance could significantly impact USD strength.
  • Eurozone inflation data and ECB policy actions might affect euro movements against the dollar.
 

EUR-USD Rate Calculator

 
 
   
   
   
   
   
 
 

EUR to USD Market Data

Euro (EUR) to US dollar (USD) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

 
Sell EUR   →   Buy USD
1 EUR =
1.1376We compare provider deals to this wholesale mid-market rate. Read more
USD
1d+0.1%▲
EUR to USD at 1.1411 is 1.3% below its 3-month average of 1.1558, having traded in a very stable 3.8% range from 1.1359 to 1.1789
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  1 USD = 0.8790 EUR

Compare & Save - euro to US dollar

Exchange rates can vary significantly between different currency exchange providers, so it's important to compare euro (EUR) to US dollar (USD) rates from different sources before making a conversion.

Use our EUR to USD calculator to see how much you could save on your international money transfers. makes it easy to compare the Total Cost you are being charged on Euro to Dollar currency rates and the possible savings of using various providers.

 
 

Will the Euro rise against the US dollar?

This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the euro vs US dollar current value is to look the EUR/USD historic rate and change over a range of periods.

The following table looks at the change in the EUR to USD exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

DateEUR/USDChangePeriod
09 Jul 2026
1.1433
0% ▼2 Week
24 Apr 2026
1.1723
2.5% ▼3 Month
23 Jul 2025
1.1773
2.9% ▼1 Year
24 Jul 2021
1.1771
2.9% ▼5 Year
25 Jul 2016
1.0996
3.9% ▲10 Year
28 Jul 2006
1.2736
10.3% ▼20 Year
EUR/USD historic rates & change to 23-Jul-2026

It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

To help with this you can add EUR/USD to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

 
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Rather than requiring you to set a target rate, our Rate Alerts keep you informed of recent trends and movements of currency pairs.

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Forecasts disclaimer: Please be advised that the forecasts and analysis of market data presented on BestExchangeRates.com are solely a review and compilation of forecasts from various market experts and economists. These forecasts are not meant to reflect the opinions or views of BestExchangeRates.com or its affiliates, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in any financial transactions. Read more