EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook
28 Jul 2026 • 00:25 GMT
Forecast snapshot
Quick EUR/USD forecast
Near-term bias🔴 Mild downside
Expected range1.1160 – 1.1370
Dominant driver🌍 Global risk sentiment
3-month trend⚪ Range-bound
Currently, EUR/USD is trading close to 30-day lows near 1.1368, about 1.5% below its 3-month average of 1.1539. The pair remains consolidating within its recent range, pressured by risk-off sentiment supported by geopolitical tensions and economic data. Near-term conditions suggest the pair may face downward bias if risk aversion persists, keeping the euro supported by safe-haven flows but limited in gains.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to the US may find conditions less favourable than recent levels if the euro weakens further.
- Travellers: buying USD cash or loading cards could face slightly less advantageous rates if the pair retains a downward bias.
- Businesses: paying USD invoices with euros may see additional costs if the pair declines further.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve’s monetary stance remains more hawkish than the European Central Bank, keeping US yields supported.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off conditions driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices continue to favor safe havens like the USD.
- Global factors: Elevated geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, sustain cautious risk sentiment, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: Signs of a shift towards risk appetite or easing geopolitical tensions could support Euro gains.
- Downside risk: Further escalation in geopolitical tensions or a hawkish surprise from the Fed could deepen the dollar’s strength.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs, especially if the pair’s downside extends. Comparing FX providers can offset less favourable exchange conditions.