EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook
13 Aug 2026 • 00:25 GMT
Forecast snapshot
Quick EUR/USD forecast
Near-term bias🔴 Mild downside
Expected range1.1160 – 1.1520
Dominant driver🌍 Global risk sentiment
3-month trend⚪ Range-bound
Currently, EUR/USD is trading near 7-day lows around 1.1524, just above its 3-month average. The pair remains supported by risk-off sentiment but faces downward pressure due to the dominant risk sentiment environment. Near-term conditions suggest a weaker bias, with the pair consolidating within its recent range. The pair may continue to find support around current levels if risk-off conditions persist.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to the US may see less favourable conversion rates if EUR/USD weakens further.
- Travellers: exchanging euros for US dollars could face challenges securing rates near recent lows.
- Businesses: paying overseas invoices in USD might encounter higher costs if the pair extends its decline.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The US yield advantage supports US Dollar, reinforcing risk-off flows.
- Risk/commodities: Elevated risk aversion and safe-haven demand for USD keep pressure on EUR.
- Global factors: Persistent risk-off sentiment driven by global market and geopolitical tensions.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A shift to risk-on sentiment could lift EUR/USD from current levels.
- Downside risk: Unexpected US dollar strength, perhaps from a broader risk-off move or US data surprises, could deepen declines.
BER suggests comparing FX providers to help offset less favourable exchange conditions and possibly reduce transfer costs.