EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook
25 Jun 2026 • 00:25 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 1.1160 – 1.1350
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: 🟢 Uptrend
Currently, EUR/USD is trading near recent lows around 1.1354, below its 3-month average of 1.1625. The pair remains supported by risk-off sentiment and safe-haven flows, but the dominant driver of risk sentiment favors the dollar. Over the next few sessions, the pair may stay pressured by ongoing global risk concerns, holding near recent lows as safe-haven demand persists.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to the US dollar may find conditions less favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: buying USD cash or loading currency cards may see limited support for euros.
- Businesses: paying overseas invoices in USD may face slightly less advantageous exchange rates.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: US yields remain supported by a rate differential favoring the dollar, underpinning its strength.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment continues, boosting safe-haven currencies like USD while pressuring risk-sensitive FX.
- Global factors: Ongoing global uncertainty and European economic sluggishness sustain euro downside in the short term.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A decline in global risk aversion or improved eurozone data could support the euro.
- Downside risk: An escalation of geopolitical tension or a sharp increase in US yields might further pressure EUR/USD.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs. Comparing FX providers may help offset less favourable exchange conditions, and finding providers with lower margins can reduce total transfer costs.