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    Currency outlook EUR/USD

    EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook

    Latest EUR to USD forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for EUR/USD. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

    EUR to USD Forecast & Outlook

    28 Jul 2026 • 00:25 GMT

    EUR/USD 1.1368

    Forecast snapshot

    Quick EUR/USD forecast

    Near-term bias🔴 Mild downside
    Expected range1.1160 – 1.1370
    Dominant driver🌍 Global risk sentiment
    3-month trend⚪ Range-bound

    Currently, EUR/USD is trading close to 30-day lows near 1.1368, about 1.5% below its 3-month average of 1.1539. The pair remains consolidating within its recent range, pressured by risk-off sentiment supported by geopolitical tensions and economic data. Near-term conditions suggest the pair may face downward bias if risk aversion persists, keeping the euro supported by safe-haven flows but limited in gains.

    💸 Transfer implications

    • Expats: sending money to the US may find conditions less favourable than recent levels if the euro weakens further.
    • Travellers: buying USD cash or loading cards could face slightly less advantageous rates if the pair retains a downward bias.
    • Businesses: paying USD invoices with euros may see additional costs if the pair declines further.

    🧭 Key drivers

    • Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve’s monetary stance remains more hawkish than the European Central Bank, keeping US yields supported.
    • Risk/commodities: Risk-off conditions driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices continue to favor safe havens like the USD.
    • Global factors: Elevated geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, sustain cautious risk sentiment, pressuring risk-sensitive currencies.

    ⚠️ What could change it

    • Upside risk: Signs of a shift towards risk appetite or easing geopolitical tensions could support Euro gains.
    • Downside risk: Further escalation in geopolitical tensions or a hawkish surprise from the Fed could deepen the dollar’s strength.

    BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider may help reduce overall transfer costs, especially if the pair’s downside extends. Comparing FX providers can offset less favourable exchange conditions.

    EURUSD Bank Forecasts to end of the year

    The outlook for EUR/USD is mixed among major banks as they provide varying forecasts for the end of the year. Bank of America anticipates a stronger dollar, expecting EUR/USD to reach 1.15, influenced by the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, ING forecasts the pair to rise to 1.18, expecting a softer dollar due to a more dovish Fed outlook and diminishing energy sensitivities. UBS maintains a more balanced view with the pair around 1.20, seeing risks evenly distributed.

    Big bank views

    • Bank of America expects EUR/USD to end 2026 at 1.15, citing a stronger dollar.
    • ING projects EUR/USD to reach 1.18 by year-end, anticipating moderate USD depreciation.
    • UBS sees EUR/USD risks balanced around 1.20 through the end of 2026.

    What could change the outlook

    • A shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance could significantly impact USD strength.
    • Eurozone inflation data and ECB policy actions might affect euro movements against the dollar.

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    Rate direction

    EUR to USD market data

    Euro (EUR) to US dollar (USD) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

    Sell EUR   →   Buy USD
    1 EUR =
    1.1384We compare provider deals to this wholesale mid-market rate. Read more
    USD
    1d−0.2%
    EUR to USD is at 30-day lows near 1.1368, 1.5% below its 3-month average of 1.1539, having traded in a very stable 3.8% range from 1.1359 to 1.1789
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    Will the Euro rise against the US dollar?

    This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the euro vs US dollar current value is to look the EUR/USD historic rate and change over a range of periods.

    The following table looks at the change in the EUR to USD exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

    DateEUR/USDChangePeriod
    14 Jul 2026
    1.1424
    0.4% 2 Week
    29 Apr 2026
    1.1685
    2.6% 3 Month
    28 Jul 2025
    1.1597
    1.9% 1 Year
    29 Jul 2021
    1.1892
    4.3% 5 Year
    30 Jul 2016
    1.1176
    1.8% 10 Year
    02 Aug 2006
    1.2798
    11.1% 20 Year
    EUR/USD historic rates & change to 28-Jul-2026

    It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

    To help with this you can add EUR/USD to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

     
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