The EUR/USD exchange rate remains range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining a flexible monetary policy while the Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts. Additionally, Bulgaria's euro adoption may enhance regional economic stability. Moreover, the eurozone's GDP growth forecast of 1.6% for 2026 supports a more positive outlook for the euro.
Near-term, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a relatively stable range, reflecting recent price movements around 1.1700.
An upside risk could arise from stronger-than-expected US economic data that supports the dollar, while a downside risk might stem from signs of weakening inflation in the eurozone, which could lead to further ECB interventions.
Recent price data shows EUR/USD at 14-day lows near 1.1677, reflecting modest volatility. Oil prices, performing lower at 60.37, suggest additional headwinds for the euro, particularly regarding inflation concerns in the Eurozone.