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USD to GBP Forecasts – US dollar to British pound

Latest USD to GBP forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for USD/GBP. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

 

USD to GBP Forecast & Outlook

16 Jul 2026 • 00:26 GMT

USD/GBP 0.7386

📊 Forecast snapshot

  • Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
  • Expected range: 0.7210 – 0.7390
  • Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
  • 3-month trend: 🟡 Range-bound, upside bias

Currently, USD/GBP is trading close to 60-day lows near 0.7386, holding near its 90-day average and within a recent range. Risk sentiment remains under pressure due to safe-haven flows linked to geopolitical tensions, which supports the British Pound in the short term. Over the next few sessions, the pair may face limited upside unless risk conditions ease.

💸 Transfer implications

  • Expats: sending money to the UK may find GBP less favourable than recent levels unless risk sentiment improves.
  • Travellers: exchanging USD for GBP could see slightly better rates if the pair rises.
  • Businesses: paying UK invoices in GBP might benefit if markets stabilize but could face less favourable conditions if the pair remains supported by safe-haven flows.

🧭 Key drivers

  • Rate gap: The US rate differential remains modest, with the USD supported by recent Fed hikes, keeping the bias for the pair to drift lower.
  • Risk/commodities: Safe-haven flows driven by geopolitical tensions continue to support GBP and pressure the pair downward.
  • Global factors: The unwinding of short sterling positions and market risk-off conditions remain dominant influences.

⚠️ What could change it

  • Upside risk: A decline in geopolitical tensions or stabilization of risk sentiment could lift USD/GBP toward recent highs.
  • Downside risk: Further escalation of geopolitical issues might sustain safe-haven flows, keeping the pair supported near recent lows.

BER suggests comparing FX providers to find lower margins, helping to offset less favourable exchange conditions.

 

GBPUSD Bank Forecasts to end of the year

The outlook for GBPUSD by the end of the year is mixed according to major banks. Most forecasts from financial institutions suggest a potential rise in GBPUSD, with targets clustering around 1.36 to 1.38. However, some forecasts indicate a more bearish view, with expectations of the pair falling as low as 1.32, reflecting caution due to UK economic challenges and USD strength.

Big bank views

  • Goldman Sachs is targeting GBPUSD between 1.36 and 1.37 by year-end.
  • Societe Generale projects a weaker GBPUSD at approximately 1.32.
  • UOB anticipates a gradual rise to 1.36 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

What could change the outlook

  • The Bank of England's monetary policy decisions in response to domestic inflation and economic contraction.
  • The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and their impact on USD strength.
 

USD-GBP Rate Calculator

 
 
   
   
   
   
   
 
 

USD to GBP Market Data

US dollar (USD) to British pound (GBP) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

 
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GBP
1d−1.1%▼
USD to GBP is at 60-day lows near 0.7386, just 0.9% below its 3-month average of 0.7452, having traded in a very stable 3.5% range from 0.7335 to 0.7594
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  1 GBP = 1.3508 USD

Compare & Save - US dollar to British pound

Exchange rates can vary significantly between different currency exchange providers, so it's important to compare US dollar (USD) to British pound (GBP) rates from different sources before making a conversion.

Use our USD to GBP calculator to see how much you could save on your international money transfers. makes it easy to compare the Total Cost you are being charged on Dollar to Sterling currency rates and the possible savings of using various providers.

 
 

Will the US dollar rise against the British pound?

This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the US dollar vs British pound current value is to look the USD/GBP historic rate and change over a range of periods.

The following table looks at the change in the USD to GBP exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

DateUSD/GBPChangePeriod
02 Jul 2026
0.7497
1.5% ▼2 Week
17 Apr 2026
0.7395
0.1% ▼3 Month
16 Jul 2025
0.7457
0.9% ▼1 Year
17 Jul 2021
0.7265
1.7% ▲5 Year
18 Jul 2016
0.7538
2% ▼10 Year
21 Jul 2006
0.5382
37.3% ▲20 Year
USD/GBP historic rates & change to 16-Jul-2026

It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

To help with this you can add USD/GBP to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

 
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Rather than requiring you to set a target rate, our Rate Alerts keep you informed of recent trends and movements of currency pairs.

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Forecasts disclaimer: Please be advised that the forecasts and analysis of market data presented on BestExchangeRates.com are solely a review and compilation of forecasts from various market experts and economists. These forecasts are not meant to reflect the opinions or views of BestExchangeRates.com or its affiliates, nor should they be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in any financial transactions. Read more