USD/RUB Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and trading near recent lows.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady contrasts with the Bank of Russia's adjustments, leading to a weaker USD against the RUB.
- Risk/commodities: Recent softening of oil prices is concerning, as lower export revenues can contribute to further depreciation of the ruble.
- Macro factor: New U.S. sanctions on Russian financial institutions have heightened volatility, pressuring the ruble's value.
Range:
The USD/RUB is likely to drift within the recent range as both currencies react to ongoing pressures.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could boost the ruble, supporting its exchange rate against the dollar.
- Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions and further sanctions could lead to increased depreciation of the ruble.
