USD/RUB Outlook: Likely to decrease due to the rate being below its recent average and near the lower end of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's pause on rate cuts contrasts with the Central Bank of Russia reducing support for the ruble, creating a weaker position for the RUB.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above their recent average, supporting the RUB; however, ongoing sanctions create uncertainty that could undermine its strength.
- One macro factor: Economic forecasts suggest a gradual weakening of the ruble through 2026-2028, which adds additional downward pressure.
Range: The USD/RUB is likely to drift lower within the recent range, testing the lower extremes as uncertainties persist.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sharp rebound in U.S. economic data might bolster USD demand.
- Downside risk: Heightening geopolitical tensions or further sanctions against Russia could weaken the ruble significantly.
