Bias: Range-bound, with USD/RUB below the 90-day average and centered in the last three months’ range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: US Fed easing bets versus the Bank of Russia's tight policy stance, widening the dollar-ruble differential that may keep USD anchored near the top of the range.
- Oil: Oil trades near 60-day highs and sits above its 3-month average, supporting ruble on energy export receipts even as regime-related volatility lingers.
- Sanctions: EU ban on new Russian gas contracts could trim energy export revenue and weigh on the ruble, though higher oil prices can cushion the move.
Range: USD/RUB likely to drift within the 3-month range, remaining near the middle rather than testing extremes.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payrolls or hawkish Fed remarks would lift the dollar and push USD/RUB higher.
- Downside risk: earlier-than-expected Bank of Russia rate cuts could strengthen the ruble and push USD/RUB lower.
