The USD to RUB market is currently range-bound.
The ongoing key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential remains substantial, with the Federal Reserve expected to reduce rates while the Bank of Russia aims to cut its high rates by 2026.
- Global oil prices have been volatile, impacting the ruble significantly since Russia is a major oil exporter. Recent values show oil at a lower average, which could weaken RUB.
- Economic growth signals are mixed; while the U.S. benefits from improving global conditions, Russia expects a slowdown in GDP growth which may pressure the ruble.
In the near term, USD to RUB is likely to trade within its recent stable range, potentially showing slight fluctuations. Upside risk for the dollar may arise from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. Conversely, a more aggressive reduction in Russian interest rates or a steep decline in oil prices could favor further ruble depreciation.
