The current market view for the USD to RUB exchange rate is bearish, pointing to a weakening of the ruble against the dollar in the near term.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in 2026 could weaken the dollar further, while the Bank of Russia aims to reduce rates significantly to stabilize the ruble.
- A projected slowdown in Russia's GDP growth to 0.5–1.5% may pressure the ruble, despite declining inflation, which could stabilize it.
- Oil prices, pivotal for the ruble, are currently below their 3-month average, signaling potential headwinds for the currency.
In the upcoming months, the exchange rate is expected to remain within a volatile range, reflecting recent movements.
An upside risk for the ruble could come from unexpected increases in oil prices, while a downside risk might stem from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which could reinforce the dollar's position. The overall outlook suggests continued fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
