The USD to RUB exchange rate has a bearish bias.
The Federal Reserve is expected to implement multiple rate cuts, signaling a weaker USD in the near term. Global economic growth and rising commodity prices, particularly in oil, may also contribute to market volatility. The Bank of Russia plans to cut its key interest rate by 2026, suggesting a potential currency stabilization, supported by projected decreases in inflation.
The USD/RUB pair is expected to remain within a volatile range, trading around recent levels with opportunities for fluctuation.
An upside risk could emerge from stronger-than-expected oil prices, which often support the ruble. On the downside, a faster-than-forecasted easing of U.S. monetary policy could further weaken the dollar, pushing the exchange rate higher. Current trends indicate this pair has been trading near 80.45, above the three-month average, while oil has dipped to recent lows, indicating potential headwinds for the ruble.
