The current market bias for USD to RUB is bearish.
Key drivers include:
• The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts could weaken the USD, influencing exchange rates negatively.
• The Central Bank of Russia's high-interest rate, projected to drop from 17.5% to the range of 12.0-13.0%, aims to stabilize the ruble amid inflation control.
• Inflation in Russia is expected to decrease, potentially supporting the ruble's value as the economy stabilizes.
In the near term, the USD to RUB exchange rate is likely to trade within a range near current levels, reflecting recent stability.
An upside risk could arise from a significant increase in global commodity prices, boosting the ruble. Conversely, a downside risk may stem from deteriorating economic growth forecasts for Russia, which could put further pressure on the ruble.
