SGD to AUD - Rate Guide

Singapore Dollar (SGD)

Singapore was added to a US watchlist of suspected currency manipulators in May. Though that means little right now in terms of economic implications, it created some negative sentiment that spurred a rise in USD/SGD to a 6-month high (SGD low) of S$1.384.

Overall, it’s been a mixed 2019 for the Singapore dollar, with small gains (<2 percent) against the euro and Australian dollar, but small losses against the US dollar and pound.

In May, SGD was pressured by data showing core inflation at a 1-year low, by an escalation in US-China trade tensions, and after Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry downgraded 2019 growth forecasts. At 1.2 percent, quarterly growth in the Lion City has slowed to its lowest level in a decade.

All said, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will, at best, keep monetary policy unchanged when it next meets in October (there's a chance it could turn dovish).

Read more in the article SGD Forecasts.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The threat of proxy war between the US and Iran in Iraq has pared back some of the gains the Aussie had made coming into the New Year.

The Australian dollar had started the new decade strongly climbing to multi-month highs helped along by cooling trade tensions between the United States and China and optimism for global economic growth in the year ahead.

The Aussie broke back over US70 cents on the final day of 2019 — a level not seen since mid year. During December the Australian dollar reversed direction (again) and climbed steadily back up against the US dollar on the back of the strength of the housing market and a market perception that further interest rate cuts were less likely. In November it had been all downhill traffic for the Aussie dropping back from highs close to 70c at the beginning of the month to around 67c against the USD by month end.

At the end of October the AUD had surged to a three month high against the US dollar following the third rate cut in a year by the US Federal Reserve. The gains were mainly due to the fall in the US dollar after the market sensed that US rates are more likely to rise now than fall further.

The RBA also added to the positive sentiment with an optimistic assessment of easing risks from the US-China trade war and Brexit. Accordingly markets are pulling back from bets that the cash rate will drop to 0.5 per cent and the possible start of quantitative easing.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations.

For AUD forecasts and predictions read our Australian Dollar Forecasts report.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.