SGD/AUD - Rate Guide

Singapore Dollar (SGD)

Singapore was added to a US watchlist of suspected currency manipulators in May. Though that means little right now in terms of economic implications, it created some negative sentiment that spurred a rise in USD/SGD to a 6-month high (SGD low) of S$1.384.

Overall, it’s been a mixed 2019 for the Singapore dollar, with small gains (<2 percent) against the euro and Australian dollar, but small losses against the US dollar and pound.

In May, SGD was pressured by data showing core inflation at a 1-year low, by an escalation in US-China trade tensions, and after Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry downgraded 2019 growth forecasts. At 1.2 percent, quarterly growth in the Lion City has slowed to its lowest level in a decade.

All said, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will, at best, keep monetary policy unchanged when it next meets in October (there's a chance it could turn dovish).

Read more in the article SGD Forecasts.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the SGD / AUD was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.