Outlook
The SGD is likely to remain range-bound near the current 0.77 area versus the USD, underpinned by Singapore’s accommodative MAS stance and resilient growth. External risks, particularly U.S. tariff dynamics and global trade tensions, keep a lid on any sharp upside for the SGD. If inflation stays tame and growth holds, the SGD could hover within the established ranges; a shift in MAS policy or a clearer path on tariffs could prompt more decisive moves.
Key drivers
- MAS policy stance: An accommodative slope since January 2025 supports domestic demand and inflation containment, helping SGD stability even as external conditions wobble.
- Inflation trajectory: Core inflation forecasts trimmed to 0.5%–1.5% in 2025 lessen near-term pressure on policy, supporting a steady SGD tone.
- Growth outlook: Singapore’s economy expected to stay near trend in 2026, reinforcing currency resilience amid a mixed global backdrop.
- Trade tensions and tariffs: Ongoing U.S. tariff risks give markets reason to be cautious; policy certainty and trade clarity help SGD stability, while escalation could dampen risk appetite.
- USD and cross-rate dynamics: SGD/USD at 90-day highs around 0.7860 reflects a strong USD backdrop at times, with crosses showing room to move within established ranges as global rates and risk sentiment shift.
Range
SGD/USD: 0.7644–0.7860
SGD/EUR: 0.6593–0.6696
SGD/GBP: 0.5756–0.5873
SGD/JPY: 117.4–123.7
What could change it
- A unexpected shift in MAS policy (tighter or looser) or new inflation surprises could reprice the SGD.
- A clear resolution or escalation of U.S. tariff risks that materially alters global growth and risk appetite.
- A domestic growth surprise (stronger or weaker than expected) altering Singapore’s rate trajectory.
- A sustained USD trend (either broad-based strength or a sharp pullback) that pushes SGD crosses decisively outside current ranges.
