Outlook
The SGD faces a constructive path but remains sensitive to global trade dynamics and policy moves. MAS eased the pace of SGD appreciation in January and again in April 2025 to support growth, and in July 2025 kept the policy stance unchanged amid tariff risks, underpinning a steady, gradual appreciation trajectory. Markets had priced SGD to trade in a 1.25-1.30 per USD range in 2025, with a view of further gains into 2026 as global conditions improve (Straits Times). In the near term, the SGD is likely to trade in a narrow band around the 0.77-0.79 per USD area, with cross‑rates moving on risk appetite and trade headlines.
Key drivers
MAS policy and domestic growth dynamics continue to shape the SGD. The adjustments in early 2025 that slowed SGD appreciation, followed by a July 2025 policy hold, have supported resilience in Singapore’s economy and currency. Trade tensions, notably the US tariffs on Singaporean exports in 2025, add a downside skew to the SGD’s path and keep the currency sensitive to external demand shifts. Singapore’s GDP growth remained robust, with Q2 2025 printing at 4.3%, reinforcing a balanced stance from MAS amid a challenging global backdrop. Global macro dynamics and currency flows—alongside cross‑currency movements and risk sentiment—will continue to influence the SGD’s rate of appreciation against major currencies into 2026.
Range
SGD/USD has traded in a 0.7648-0.7934 range over the recent period, with the latest price at 0.7898, about 1.3% above the 3‑month average of 0.7796. SGD/EUR sits around 0.6699, at 90‑day highs and about 0.8% above the 3‑month average of 0.6644, after moving within 0.6593-0.6699. SGD/GBP is near 0.5860, a 90‑day high and about 1.2% above the 3‑month average of 0.5791, within a 0.5730-0.5860 range. SGD/JPY is around 122.4, a 7‑day high and about 0.7% above the 3‑month average of 121.6, within a 119.6-123.8 range.
What could change it
A shift in MAS policy—either renewed easing or an acceleration of SGD appreciation—could alter the trajectory quickly. Developments in US trade policy, particularly new tariffs or their removal, would affect SGD sentiment and cross‑rate dynamics. Domestic data surprises, such as stronger or weaker growth or inflation metrics, could recalibrate the stance of MAS and trader expectations. Broadly, a stronger USD would tend to pressure the SGD lower, while a softer USD and improving global risk appetite could support further SGD strength, especially if global trade conditions improve and growth momentum persists.
