Outlook
The SGD is likely to trade in a narrow range against the USD and other major pairs in the near term, supported by Singapore’s resilient growth and a cautiously accommodative MAS stance. A continued MAS stance with contained inflation could keep the SGD supported. However, external risk factors—particularly the US-Singapore tariff situation and broader dollar strength—could cap gains or weigh on the SGD if risk appetite weakens.
Key drivers
- MAS policy trajectory remains accommodative, after easing in early 2025 and holding policy through 2025, with inflation remaining subdued.
- Trade tensions, notably US tariffs imposed on Singaporean goods in 2025, add a potential downside risk to SGD in headlines-driven moves.
- Singapore’s economy showed resilience with solid growth in 2025, reinforcing MAS’s cautious stance and the case for stability in the SGD.
- Inflation trends remained subdued, with core inflation targets easing pressure on MAS to tighten, supporting a steadier SGD path.
Range
SGD/USD 0.7894, 3-month average 0.7806, trading within 0.7706–0.7934 (3.0% range), currently about 1.1% above the 3-month average.
SGD/EUR 0.6704, near 90-day highs, 3-month average 0.6646, range 0.6593–0.6704 (1.7% range), about 0.9% above the 3-month average.
SGD/GBP 0.5849, 3-month average 0.5791, range 0.5730–0.5860 (2.3% range), about 1.0% above the 3-month average.
SGD/JPY 123.1, 14-day highs, 3-month average 121.8, range 119.6–123.8 (3.5% range), about 1.1% above the 3-month average.
What could change it
- MAS policy shift or guidance changes (tighter or more explicit tightening/policy adjustments) that alter the SGD’s policy stance.
- Developments in US–Singapore trade policy, including tariffs or their resolution, altering external demand for SGD-denominated trades.
- Domestic data surprises (growth, inflation), which could shift expectations for MAS and affect SGD direction.
- Global dollar dynamics and risk sentiment (Fed policy, dollar strength or weakness) that influence cross‑border flows and Singapore market positioning.
- Broad macroeconomic developments (global growth trends, commodity prices) that influence Singapore’s trade and growth outlook.
