USD to SEK - Rate Guide

United States Dollar (USD)

The US dollar has held its value this year despite a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the greenback is still considered a safer currency to own than most others. After grim employment data on June-7, the Dollar Index was up 0.5 percent on the year (it had fallen 2 percent from May’s 2-year high).

As in other parts of the world, interest rate cuts are now expected in the US following a drastic shift in economic forecasts. At least two Fed cuts are expected this year, with the first most likely to come in July.

Taking the blame for the economic downturn is US President Donald Trump, whose trade policies have set a ball rolling that could wipe $455bn from global output according to the IMF.

Read more in the article USD Forecasts.

Swedish Krona (SEK)

It’s been a grim 16 months for the Swedish krona. In October hitting a record low of 9.90 per USD and falling to its weakest level against the euro since the wake of the financial crisis as global trade tensions continued to take a toll.

2019 weakness has confounded forecasters, who predicted at the start of the year a much stronger currency based on expectations for higher interest rates in Sweden. With economic conditions changing for the worse, markets have now completely priced out any rate hike in 2019, spurring krona weakness.

Danske Bank said in May that “EUR/SEK is somewhat overbought … however, we believe there is a clear risk that Swedish growth and inflation will undershoot the Riksbank’s forecasts … and that monetary policy will have to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.” As a result, Danske raised its 12-month EUR/SEK forecast to 11.00 to reflect its more bearish krona outlook.