The USD to SEK exchange rate has exhibited notable volatility recently, influenced by several macroeconomic factors affecting both currencies. Currently, the USD sits at 90-day lows around 9.2762, significantly below its 3-month average of 9.5374, demonstrating a decline of 2.7%. Analysts attribute this downward trajectory primarily to prevailing dovish sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month have raised concerns among investors, with some speculating there could be a more significant reduction of up to 50 basis points. Weak retail sales data is poised to further exacerbate this situation, leading to bearish sentiment for the USD.
On the other side of the exchange, the Swedish Krona (SEK) has been impacted by the Riksbank's recently adopted rate-cutting strategy. Following an unexpected rate cut to 2.00% in June 2025, there are indications that the Riksbank may pursue additional cuts, which has contributed to the SEK’s depreciation. Experts from BCA Research highlight a bearish outlook, suggesting that rapid declines in inflation and a broader economic slowdown are likely to perpetuate this weakness.
Furthermore, Sweden's inflation levels have aligned more closely with the European Central Bank's targets, reducing pressure on the Riksbank to maintain higher interest rates. UBS also revised its projections, indicating shifting perspectives between the Riksbank and the ECB, which could influence SEK movement against the USD.
Given these insights, currency analysts predict continued fluctuations in the USDSEK exchange rate. With the USD currently under pressure from potential rate cuts and the SEK facing its own challenges from aggressive monetary easing, market participants should remain attentive to upcoming economic data and central bank announcements, as these will likely dictate the near-term trajectory of this currency pair.
