The USD to SEK exchange rate is currently bearish.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts which may weaken the USD. Conversely, Sweden’s Riksbank has kept rates steady, providing some support to the SEK. Recent news indicates that Sweden’s GDP growth is set to rise significantly in 2026, while US inflation has dropped, suggesting a slower economic outlook for the USD.
Over the next few months, the USD/SEK pair is expected to trade within a relatively stable range, possibly fluctuating as both currencies react to macroeconomic developments.
An upside risk could arise if the US economy displays stronger-than-expected growth, prompting a reevaluation of the Fed’s rate-cut plans. Meanwhile, a downside risk is present if global economic uncertainty diminishes risk appetite, leading to further strengthening of the SEK, which has already appreciated significantly against the USD.