The USD/SEK exchange rate currently leans bearish.
The main drivers include:
- Interest rate expectations signal potential further cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may weaken the USD.
- Stronger growth forecasts for Sweden, with GDP predicted to rise significantly in 2026, support the SEK's performance.
- The SEK has recently appreciated substantially against the USD, making it a leading performer among major currencies.
The expected near-term range is likely to remain within a moderately stable corridor, reflecting current fluctuations.
Upside risks could stem from unexpected US economic resilience or changes in Federal Reserve policy that favor the dollar's strength. Conversely, downside risks may arise from renewed geopolitical tensions or economic shocks that could hamper Sweden's recovery, potentially harming the SEK.