Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

Bias USD/DKK stays range-bound, hovering near the 90-day avg and mid-3m range. Fed policy trajectory and DK's euro-peg defense keep dollar moves modest as oil steadies. Upside risk: hot US payrolls; downside: softer data or faster Fed easing. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to move toward a neutral stance with potential rate cuts in 2026, while Denmark defends the krone peg to the euro, keeping the USD/DKK gap small. - Risk/commodities: Oil markets have been steady with modest moves, helping limit abrupt swings in risk appetite and dollar demand. - Macro factor: The trajectory of Fed policy remains the single dominant influence on dollar moves. Range USD/DKK drift within the recent 3-month range, with a tendency to hover near the middle and near the 90-day average, as data flow guides the Fed and the Danish central bank. What could change it - Upside risk: hotter US payrolls or a more cautious Fed that keeps dollar strength alive. - Downside risk: softer US data or faster-than-expected Fed easing that weighs on the dollar