USD/RUB Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below the recent average and positioned near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady contrasts with the Bank of Russia's adjustments, putting pressure on the USD.
• Risk/commodities: The decline in oil prices is reducing Russia's export revenues, thus negatively impacting the ruble's value.
• One macro factor: New U.S. sanctions targeting Russian financial institutions have increased volatility in the forex market, affecting the ruble's performance.
Range:
Expect USD/RUB to hold steady within the recent range, facing challenges to move upward.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic indicator could boost the USD.
• Downside risk: Any further intensification of sanctions or geopolitical tensions could lead to a deeper depreciation of the ruble.
