Bias: range-bound, as USD/RUB sits below its 90-day average but inside the upper half of the last three months' range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to ease toward a neutral stance in 2026, while the Bank of Russia keeps policy tight, keeping USD gains in check versus RUB until a clear BoR easing appears.
• Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its longer-run average and shows volatility, a higher oil backdrop tends to support the ruble.
• One macro factor: Sanctions impact — EU moves to restrict energy trade put pressure on energy revenues and add headwinds for RUB.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the three-month range, with little conviction toward extreme moves.
What could change it:
Upside risk: A clearer BoR easing path or a sustained oil rally could lift RUB.
Downside risk: A stronger US data pulse that keeps Fed easing expectations intact and supports the dollar could push USD/RUB higher.
