USD/RUB Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the rate is below its recent average and exhibiting mixed signals from various drivers.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to halt rate cuts contrasts with the Russian Central Bank's reduced foreign currency interventions, which may lead to a weaker ruble.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is trading significantly above its recent average, which typically supports the ruble, but fluctuating prices may improve overall market stability.
• One macro factor: Economic forecasts predict a gradual weakening of the ruble in the coming years, indicating pressure on its value.
Range: The USD/RUB is likely to drift within its recent range, influenced by ongoing political and economic developments.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in oil prices could boost the ruble and strengthen its value against the dollar.
• Downside risk: Heightened geopolitical tensions or intensified sanctions could lead to further pressure on the ruble.
