The USD to Naira (NGN) exchange rate has shown some fluctuations influenced by various economic factors over the past two months. As of October 2, 2025, the USD is trading at approximately 1,478 NGN, which is 2.5% below its three-month average of 1,516 NGN. The USD/NGN has remained relatively stable, trading within a range of 1,465 to 1,539.
Recent currency updates indicate a firming in the US dollar amidst global risk appetite improvements, notably due to optimism surrounding geopolitical developments. Analysts suggest that the upcoming consumer sentiment index may cause the USD to weaken if it reports another deterioration in US economic morale. The Federal Reserve's leadership transition and pending inflation data are also critical factors that could impact USD valuation.
On the Nigerian side, the Central Bank of Nigeria's interventions have contributed to the naira's slight strengthening. Despite these efforts, labor unrest in the oil sector and temporary halts in crude supply from the Dangote Refinery have raised concerns about the stability of the naira. The International Monetary Fund has acknowledged Nigeria's economic reforms, which include the unification of the foreign exchange rate and the removal of fuel subsidies, enhancing macroeconomic stability.
Additionally, the price of Brent Crude oil, a significant factor in the Nigerian economy, is currently trading at approximately 65.22 USD, which is 3.7% below its three-month average of 67.7 USD. Oil has experienced volatility within a 14.3% range recently, from 64.20 to 73.37 USD. Given the reliance of the Nigerian economy on oil revenue, fluctuations in this commodity price can have knock-on effects on the naira's value.
Overall, markets remain watchful of both the Federal Reserve's policy actions and Nigeria's economic reforms, as these factors will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of the USD to NGN exchange rate.
