The USD to NGN exchange rate is currently experiencing volatility, reflective of broader trends impacting both the US dollar and the Nigerian naira. Recent data indicates the USD is trading near 1463 NGN, reaching 90-day lows and sitting 3.4% below its three-month average of 1515. This fluctuation has occurred within a stable range of 1463 to 1539 NGN over the past few months.
Factors influencing the US dollar include increasing demand amid a favorable sentiment following developments in international relations, particularly the Gaza peace deal. However, the outlook remains cautious as potential upcoming data releases, such as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, may indicate a weakening in USD demand if confidence lags.
On the Nigerian side, key developments such as the IMF’s recent endorsement of macroeconomic stability reforms and the World Bank's recognition of progress in Nigeria's economy could provide some support for the naira. However, the recent suspension of petrol sales in naira by the Dangote Refinery due to crude supply constraints raises concerns about currency stability. This situation may pressure marketers to seek USD for transactions, further complicating the naira's positioning.
Oil prices, which significantly affect the Nigerian economy, are currently at 62.73 USD per barrel, approximately 7.2% below the three-month average of 67.58. This trend underlines the continued volatility in global oil markets, which can exacerbate the naira's depreciation if prices remain low.
Market forecasts from experts indicate a potential 6% depreciation for the naira by the end of 2025, driven partly by global financial market volatility and ongoing domestic economic challenges such as high inflation and food prices. As such, businesses and individuals engaged in transactions involving the USD and NGN should closely monitor these evolving dynamics to optimize their dealings in the currency markets.
