Date: March 31, 2026
Key Developments Affecting the Polish Zloty (PLN):
Monetary Policy and Interest Rates
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has reduced interest rates by 175 basis points to 4% in 2025, supporting credit recovery. (imf.org)
Inflation Trends
Inflation has declined into the target range, with headline and core inflation returning to the target, driven by goods, while services inflation has remained elevated. (imf.org)
Economic Growth
Poland's GDP is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in EU fund execution and monetary easing. (imf.org)
Banking Sector Outlook
The Polish Bank Association forecasts a significant drop in the banking sector's total net profit to approximately 30.8 billion zlotys by 2026, down from 44.1 to 46.1 billion zlotys in 2025. (trustfinance.com)
Currency Forecasts
UBS forecasts the EUR/PLN exchange rate to trade at 4.20 in Q1 2026, with slight fluctuations throughout the year, supported by Poland's robust growth outlook and the zloty's carry advantage over the euro. (ainvest.com)
These factors collectively influence the Polish zloty's performance in the currency market.
Canadian Dollar Update
Updated 01 Aug 2026 • 23:45 GMT
The Canadian dollar has shown resilience against the US dollar, driven by fluctuating oil prices and cautious monetary policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC). As of mid-July, USD/CAD is trading around 1.4033 after stronger oil prices provided support to the loonie, despite the BoC's decision to hold its rate steady at 2.25% but keeping the possibility of future hikes open. Market sentiments are tempered by weak inflation and trade uncertainties, particularly concerning the USMCA, which are impacting near-term CAD expectations.
Key watchpoints:
- Monitor changes in global oil prices as they significantly impact the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.
- Watch for any updates or changes in monetary policy from the Bank of Canada, particularly rate hike announcements.
- Pay attention to upcoming Canadian employment and economic data releases for further insights into CAD movements.