As of December 4, 2025, the Polish zloty (PLN) is facing a complex landscape influenced by recent monetary policy decisions, political changes, and economic forecasts. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, a move prompted by a surprising drop in November's inflation rate to 2.4%. According to NBP Governor Adam Glapiński, a cautious "wait-and-see" approach is likely moving forward, particularly due to the high budget deficit persisting in Poland.
Analysts forecast potential weakening of the zloty in the upcoming year. A Reuters poll highlights that the PLN could soften to around 4.25 per euro by the end of 2026, attributing this outlook to ongoing economic stagnation and fiscal pressures. The election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025 has also compounded uncertainties, as his vetoes of multiple bills and active engagement in policy debates raise concerns over fiscal stability.
In light of revised currency forecasts, UBS reported in June 2025 that trade tensions and domestic political challenges could hinder the zloty's performance. Their projections mention a continued struggle for the zloty, landing the EUR/PLN forecast at 4.25 through the second quarter of 2026.
On a technical note, the PLN has recently shown stability against several key currencies. The PLN to USD is trading at 0.2751, slightly above its three-month average and maintaining a stable range of 0.2694 to 0.2792. The PLN to EUR is at near 7-day highs of 0.2366, also above its three-month average, fluctuating within a tight 1.2% range. The PLN to GBP stands at 0.2068, reflecting a similar trend above its average, while the PLN to JPY has reached 90-day highs at 43.14, significantly above its three-month average of 41.76.
In summary, developments concerning interest rates, political stability, and economic forecasts play a critical role in shaping the Polish zloty outlook, with analysts cautioning about the potential for a softer currency in the near future.
