Outlook
The PLN faces a mixed path. Political instability weighs on the currency, but stronger growth and a higher rate path offer support.
Key drivers
- Political instability in the ruling coalition.
- NBP expected to keep rates at 5.75% in 2026, supporting carry.
- GDP growth seen at 3.5% in 2026, aided by EU funds.
- Inflation eased to 2.8% in Oct 2025, with core at 3.0%.
Range
PLN/USD 0.2798, within 0.2737-0.2867; PLN/EUR 0.2366, within 0.2360-0.2383; PLN/GBP 0.2075, within 0.2043-0.2084; PLN/JPY 43.66, within 42.65-44.33. Levels are near 3-month averages.
What could change it
- Political developments: stabilisation or escalation.
- NBP policy shifts or guidance changes.
- Data surprises in growth or inflation.
- Global risk appetite or euro-zone moves affecting liquidity.
