The Polish zloty (PLN) is navigating a complex landscape marked by recent economic developments and shifting expectations regarding monetary policy. As of early October 2025, the inflation rate in Poland has declined to 4.2%, the lowest level since July 2024. This drop has spurred speculation among analysts that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) may consider interest rate cuts by the end of the year. Such a move could potentially influence the zloty's value, as lower interest rates often lead to a depreciation of the currency.
Market analysts from UBS have revised their EUR/PLN forecast to 4.25 for the next year, attributing this adjustment to ongoing global trade tensions and domestic political challenges. They underscore the volatility stemming from these external factors, which could weigh on the zloty's performance against major currencies.
In practical terms, recent trading data shows the PLN to USD exchange rate at 0.2754, slightly above its three-month average and reflecting a stable range. Meanwhile, the PLN to EUR rate is at 14-day highs near 0.2351, also aligning closely with its three-month average. The PLN to GBP has reached 0.2051, just above the three-month average, while the PLN to JPY is trading at 41.19, marking a notable rise above its three-month average of 40.55.
Weaker economic indicators, such as disappointing retail sales and industrial production figures, have also led to a depreciation of the zloty against the euro, further complicating its outlook. The combination of improving inflation figures and soft economic performance creates a critical balance for the PLN in the months ahead. Analysts and market participants are keenly monitoring these developments, as future shifts in monetary policy and economic data could significantly impact the zloty's trajectory.
