Outlook
Polish zloty looks set to stay firm near current levels as the NBP keeps policy steady at 4.00%, inflation cools toward the target, and growth remains supported by EU funds. UBS still sees the zloty holding firm versus euro and dollar through 2026, helped by Poland’s improving growth outlook and a carry advantage. Domestic coalition tensions add policy risk that could cap gains.
Key drivers
- NBP paused rate cuts at 4.00%, giving policy support.
- Inflation easing toward the target supports a stronger real rate.
- IMF growth projections point to stronger 2025–2026 activity with EU fund flow.
- Domestic political divisions raise fiscal policy risk for the zloty.
- UBS view: zloty may hold firm vs euro and dollar through 2026 thanks to growth and relative yields.
Range
PLN/USD at 30-day lows near 0.2759, within a 4.5% band from 0.2744 to 0.2867; PLN/EUR near 0.2360 at 90-day lows, within about 1.0% from 0.2360 to 0.2383; PLN/GBP near 0.2058 at 14-day lows, within roughly 2.0% from 0.2043 to 0.2084; PLN/JPY at 43.38, within a 3.9% band from 42.65 to 44.33.
What could change it
- A bigger surprise in inflation or growth data.
- An unexpected policy move or guidance from the NBP.
- Shifts in EU funds flow or fiscal policy developments.
- Global risk factors or USD moves that affect liquidity and funding.
