On December 3, 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announced a 25 basis point cut in its key interest rate, lowering it to 4.00%, amid a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 2.4% in November. Governor Adam Glapiński hinted at a "wait-and-see" stance regarding future rate adjustments, indicating that Poland's high budget deficit could limit further monetary policy changes. This development has led analysts to reassess the outlook for the Polish zloty (PLN).
A Reuters poll suggests that the zloty may weaken slightly in 2026, with forecasts predicting a retreat to around 4.25 per euro. This expected fluctuation is attributed to concerns over economic stagnation and fiscal pressures within Poland. In line with this sentiment, UBS has revised its zloty forecast, maintaining a similar projection for EUR/PLN due to sustained global trade tensions and political uncertainties following the election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025. Analysts note that Nawrocki's vetoes and active engagement in policy discussions have heightened concerns of fiscal challenges impeding zloty strength.
Recent price data reflects a mixed yet stable performance for the zloty against major currencies. The PLN to USD rate currently stands at 0.2786, which is 1.5% above its three-month average of 0.2745, trading within a relatively stable range of 0.2694 to 0.2789. The PLN to EUR exchange rate is also at 90-day highs near 0.2379, edging only 0.8% above its three-month average of 0.2358, while fluctuations remained modest with a 1.7% range from 0.2339 to 0.2379. The PLN to GBP exchange rate shows a similar trend, currently at 0.2081, marking a slight increase of 0.8% over its three-month average of 0.2064. In contrast, the PLN to JPY has exhibited more volatility, trading at 43.89, which is 4.2% above its three-month average of 42.12, with wider fluctuations noted in the range of 40.49 to 43.95.
With these recent developments, individuals and businesses should stay informed on the evolving economic landscape and monetary policy shifts that could impact their international transactions involving the Polish zloty.
