The Polish zloty (PLN) is currently influenced by a combination of monetary policy adjustments, inflation trends, political dynamics, and global trade relations. In May 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, signaling the end of a tightening cycle as inflation fell to 4.3%, its lowest since August 2024. As inflation continued to decline, reaching 4.1% year-on-year in the subsequent month, market participants are anticipating further rate cuts, which could weaken the zloty.
Political uncertainty has also entered the fray following the election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025. Challenges in pushing forward his legislative agenda could hinder fiscal policies and potentially place additional downward pressure on the PLN. Moreover, ongoing global trade tensions, particularly with the United States, have cast a shadow on Poland’s export-driven economy. Tariffs imposed on Polish goods have raised concerns regarding economic growth, further complicating the outlook for the zloty.
In terms of recent price movements, the PLN to USD exchange rate has fallen to 90-day lows near 0.2694, approximately 1.7% below its three-month average of 0.2742, revealing a stable trading pattern within a 3.6% range (0.2694 to 0.2792). Conversely, the PLN to EUR stands at 0.2347, aligning closely with its three-month average and trading within a narrow 1.2% range (0.2335 to 0.2364). Meanwhile, the PLN to GBP has shown resilience, currently at 0.2070, which is 1.3% above the three-month average of 0.2043 and has traded within a 2.8% range (0.2019 to 0.2075). Lastly, the PLN to JPY at 41.42 reflects a gain of 1.2% over its three-month average of 40.94, maintaining a comparatively stable trading band of 5.4% (39.89 to 42.06).
Analysts suggest that the challenges posed by both domestic and international factors will continue to shape the PLN's performance in the near term. Businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions are encouraged to remain vigilant regarding the evolving macroeconomic landscape to optimize their currency exchange strategies.
