The Polish zloty (PLN) has experienced a notable decline of nearly 3 percent against the euro since the National Bank of Poland's unexpected decision to cut interest rates in September. Central bank governor Adam Glapiński attributed this move to a "radically changed" economic outlook, with concerns about a potential recession in Germany significantly impacting Polish exports. This connection to the German economy, which is currently grappling with stagflation and sharply declining industrial production, poses further risks to the zloty's stability.
Recent exchange rate data reflects a mixed landscape for the PLN. The zloty has reached 7-day highs against the USD, trading near 0.2744, which is 1.4% above its 3-month average of 0.2707. This pair has remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a 6.3% range between 0.2613 to 0.2777. Similarly, the PLN to EUR rate has also hit 7-day highs at approximately 0.2351, maintaining a position close to its 3-month average, with narrow trading in a 1.3% range from 0.2332 to 0.2363.
The PLN to GBP is showing strength at 0.2041, surpassing its 3-month average by 1.6%, while trading within a stable 4.9% range from 0.1965 to 0.2061. The PLN to JPY is similarly performing well, reaching 40.34, which is 2.3% above its 3-month average of 39.45, with a trading range of 7.7% between 37.98 and 40.90.
Market analysts suggest that while the recent interest rate cut has put downward pressure on the zloty, its recent peaks against major currencies may offer opportunities for businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions. Keeping an eye on the evolving economic indicators, especially concerning the impact of Germany's economic performance, will be crucial for those monitoring PLN exchange rates.
