The Polish zloty (PLN) has experienced a complex interplay of factors influencing its recent performance. In May 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut interest rates by 75 basis points, bringing the reference rate down to 6%. This decision, attributed to stabilizing prices and a perceived end to the high inflation era, reflects the central bank's efforts to support the economy despite ongoing high inflation. Analysts from UBS have expressed concerns over persistent global trade frictions and domestic political challenges, suggesting these factors could weigh on the zloty’s outlook, notably flattening their EUR/PLN forecast to 4.25 through mid-2026.
Recent movements in key PLN currency pairs indicate a generally stable trading range. The PLN to USD stands at 0.2723, only 0.7% below its 3-month average of 0.2742, maintaining a narrow range of 4.6% from 0.2669 to 0.2792. Similarly, the PLN to EUR is positioned at 0.2347, closely aligning with its 3-month average, indicating stability within a 0.9% range. The PLN to GBP is showing signs of strength, trading at 0.2045, which marks a 7-day high and sits just above its average, while the pair has seen a steady range of 2.2%. Conversely, the PLN to JPY, trading at 41.31, is notably 1.6% above its average, suggesting a stronger performance against the yen in a 4.8% range.
The landscape for the Polish zloty continues to evolve as market participants weigh the implications of monetary policy decisions, central bank reports of losses, and the ongoing global economic environment. Investors should remain vigilant, as these factors will influence exchange rates and transaction costs for international dealings.
