The Polish zloty (PLN) is currently experiencing mixed signals amid recent developments in monetary policy and political dynamics. On December 3, 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% in response to a less-than-expected inflation reading of 2.4% for November. NBP Governor Adam Glapiński has indicated a likely “wait-and-see” approach moving forward, citing a significant budget deficit which constrains further aggressive monetary policy actions.
As for currency forecasts, a Reuters poll released concurrently with the rate cut suggests that Central European currencies, including the zloty, may retreat from recent highs over the next year. Analysts predict that the zloty could weaken slightly to reach around 4.25 per euro due to economic stagnation and sustained fiscal pressures. This sentiment is echoed by UBS, which previously revised its EUR/PLN forecast downward amidst ongoing global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainty.
Political factors are also weighing heavily on the zloty's outlook. The election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025 has led to increased uncertainties, particularly after the president vetoed several significant bills and engaged in contentious policy debates. This activity has prompted concerns among analysts about potential fiscal challenges, which could further complicate the zloty’s trajectory.
Looking at recent price data, the PLN to USD pair is trading at 60-day highs near 0.2780, slightly above its 3-month average of 0.2743. Additionally, the PLN to EUR has reached 90-day highs around 0.2368, suggesting a strong, yet stable performance. The PLN to GBP is showing 14-day highs of 0.2079, and the PLN to JPY is notably at 43.29, both reflecting solid trading ranges over the past weeks.
Overall, while recent rate cuts and political developments present challenges for the zloty, its current exchange rate performance indicates resilience in specific currency pairings. Analysts suggest that stakeholders should remain alert to both economic indicators and political developments in Poland as they strategize international transactions.
