The Polish zloty (PLN) is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy changes, economic forecasts, and its performance against major currencies. Recent developments from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) indicate significant action in the central bank's approach to managing the currency and the economy.
On December 2-3, 2025, the NBP made a notable decision to cut its reference interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. This is the fifth consecutive rate cut aimed at stimulating the economy, particularly as inflation reached the midpoint of the NBP’s target at 2.5% in November. The decision reflects a response to robust GDP growth observed in the third quarter of 2025 and underscores the central bank's focus on fostering economic stability.
Despite these cuts, the NBP also projected a potential loss exceeding 30 billion zlotys for 2025. This projection stems from the strengthening of the zloty against foreign currencies, especially the U.S. dollar. Analysts have noted that while the zloty's firm performance may help curb import costs, it could also pressure export competitiveness, a critical component of Poland's economy.
Investment forecasts provide a more optimistic outlook. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced expectations for investments in Poland to exceed 650 billion zlotys (roughly 160.3 billion U.S. dollars) in 2025, with the potential to rise to 700 billion zlotys. This optimistic view is considered cautious, suggesting that actual figures may exceed expectations, indicating strong confidence in Poland's economic trajectory.
Currency forecasts are also starting to reflect these developments. Analysts from UBS have recently updated their outlook on the PLN, suggesting that its performance against the Euro is stabilizing. The bank points to the zloty maintaining a sideways trend due to the country's robust economic conditions, and it anticipates this stability to continue into 2026.
Examining recent price trends for the PLN, against the U.S. dollar, the zloty is currently trading near 14-day lows of 0.2784. This level is about 1.3% above its 3-month average of 0.2748, suggesting stable trading within a narrow range of 3.7%—from 0.2694 to 0.2794. Similarly, against the Euro, the PLN is at 0.2365, just above its 3-month average, maintaining a narrow 1.7% trading band between 0.2339 and 0.2379.
The situation is somewhat different against the British pound. The PLN is at 60-day lows of 0.2061, which is close to its 3-month average and has traded in a restricted range of 2.6% from 0.2037 to 0.2089. The currency's volatility is more pronounced against the Japanese yen, with the PLN trading at 43.47—2.7% above its 3-month average of 42.34, within a wider range of 8.5%, fluctuating from 40.49 to 43.95.
In summary, the Polish zloty's current performance is intricately tied to the NBP's rate cuts, projected economic growth, and investment expectations. This backdrop presents mixed signals for businesses and individuals involved in international transactions. The recent adjustments in monetary policy and optimistic investment outlook could provide some stability for the zloty in the coming months. Businesses managing exchange rate exposure should stay vigilant, considering both the short-term trading ranges and the broader economic indicators that could impact PLN's performance ahead.
