USD/JPY Outlook: Bullish, as the rate is above its 90-day average and near its recent highs amid ongoing tariff concerns impacting the US dollar.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's stance on potential rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Japan's tightening, strengthening the yen’s appeal.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above average, which typically supports the yen, making it more attractive as rising oil costs can affect Japan's trade balance.
• One macro factor: Japan's recent fiscal stimulus may add downward pressure on the yen, complicating its strength against the dollar.
Range: Expect USD/JPY to hold within its recent range, but may drift slightly higher given current dynamics.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sudden increase in US labor market data could bolster the dollar significantly.
• Downside risk: Any escalation in geopolitical tensions affecting US policy could weaken the dollar further.