USD/JPY forecasts change all the time, affected by news events and relative sentiment towards the US and Japanese economies and this exchange rate is even more volatile than usual because of the uncertainties around the war in Ukraine.
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar. For reference, with USD/JPY hitting 136 in July — a more than 20-Year Low for the yen.
Yen weakness against the greenback stems from the interest rate differentials between Japan and the US. The market expects that the Fed Reserve will continue to hike rates aggressively, while the BOJ is committed to low interest rates.
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The USD to JPY currency pair generally goes up whenever there is overall Dollar strength and market’s in a risk-on stance.
The foreign exchange market convention for USD/JPY is to quote Japanese yen as Yen per US dollar. Thus a higher USD/JPY rate actually means one yen is worth less, that is you can buy more yen for 1 USD.
The strength of the US dollar looks likely to continue when, at the annual Jackson Hole central banker’s getaway, Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank will ‘keep at it’ and is likely to keep raising interest rates to battle surging inflation.
A clear reflection of this is that the US Dollar index (measure of the USD strength against basket of currencies) is approaching 20 year highs.
In August forecasters are starting to suggest that the peak of USD/JPY strength for this cycle may be in the past.
The Bank of Japan has been resisting the global wave of monetary tightening keeping interest rates unchanged.
The yen, as a result, has lost considerable ground against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in 2022. For reference, in January USD/JPY was around 115 and in July was trading around 139 — a multi decade LOW for the yen.
You can read about other USD exchange rate forecasts here US Dollar Trends and Forecasts.
Disclaimer: Please note any provider recommendations, currency forecasts or any opinions of our authors should not be taken as a reference to buy or sell any financial product.