Bank of Taiwan New Taiwan dollar (TWD) Transfers Compared

USD/TWD sits above the 90-day avg and near the upper end of its 3-month range, biasing to range-bound upside. Fed easing expected later in 2026 while Taiwan stays cautious keeps USD-TWD supported. China macro and Taiwan hedging shifts add to the risk backdrop. Bias bullish-to-range-bound, as USD/TWD sits above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range. Key drivers - Rate gap: The Fed is expected to ease later in 2026 while Taiwan keeps a cautious stance, widening the USD-TWD gap and supporting the dollar. - China macro: China's inflation path and growth outlook will shape regional demand and risk appetite. - Taiwan policy: Taiwan's central bank has shown restraint, while regulatory changes around TWD hedging raise flows and hedging activity. Range The pair is expected to drift within its three-month range, currently near the upper end, with a possible test of the upper end if USD remains firm. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger US payrolls data or a hawkish Fed tilt could lift USD against TWD. - Downside risk: quicker US rate cuts or improving risk appetite could weigh on USD and support TWD