Exchange Rates & Currency Deals

USD/IDR sits above its 90-day avg in the upper half of the 3-month range, biasing to bullish-to-range-bound. Drivers: Fed/BI gap, firmer payrolls, Indonesia’s trade surplus; weak foreign inflows cap rupiah, range drift with upper tests if US data stays firm. Bias USD/IDR sits above its 90-day avg in the upper half of the 3-month range, biasing to bullish-to-range-bound. Key drivers - Rate gap: Markets expect the US Fed to ease toward a neutral stance in the coming year, while Bank Indonesia has shown willingness to ease in the past, keeping policy divergence in play. - US payrolls data: The latest jobs report showed unemployment falling, supporting the dollar and potentially capping IDR strength. - Macro factor: Indonesia's economy remains resilient with a trade surplus, but weaker foreign inflows into government bonds pressuring the rupiah. Range Range: USD/IDR is likely to drift within the three-month range, with potential tests of the upper end if US data stays firm, and local liquidity conditions may cap moves. What could change it - Upside risk: stronger US data or a Fed stance signaling higher rates could lift the dollar and push USD/IDR higher. - Downside risk: softer US data or clearer Fed easing signals could weigh on the dollar and support IDR