This is the current AUD-GBP mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-GBP exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs GBP, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and British Pound Sterling news and forecasts.
April 25: The Aussie dollar was in the trenches on Anzac day after a disappointing inflation figure saw the Australian dollar plunge 1 per cent. The headline inflation was below estimates for a 0.2 per cent rise and unchanged from the previous quarter. This has prompted predictions the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut rates at its next meeting in May, in the middle of an election campaign. This is causing headwinds for the Aussie.
Prior to this inflation induced drop, improved risk appetite, thriving commodities markets and better data from China helped lift the Australian dollar through March and into the second half of April. Against the US dollar, the Aussie was quoted at US$0.715 on April-22.
In March, both Westpac and JP Morgan predicted an Aussie slide to US$0.68 in the second half of the year. Those banks were at least more optimistic than HSBC, which argued in April for US$0.66 based on housing market weakness, high debt-to-GDP levels and continued strength in the US dollar.
Bearishness wasn’t unanimous, though, with NAB forecasting Aussie appreciation at least until mid-year; it predicted US$0.74 by the end of June.
The RBA will be happy with a weaker currency, HSBC said. The central bank has recently shifted to a dovish bias (what should be an across-the-board negative for AUD), saying lower Australian interest rates will “likely be appropriate” if inflation doesn’t pick up.
Update 14-April: The pound hovered between US$1.30 and US$1.31 (in line with 3-month averages) after the EU granted the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October. No-deal risk is gone for now and anything is possible, including a new British prime minister, a general election and/or second referendum.
Experts at MUFG said in April that sterling would likely trade between US$1.30 and US$1.34 until more clarity emerged.
If an election is called, the pound could depreciate to US$1.24, a UBS analyst said, due to “heightened uncertainty” (the opposition Labour party is consistently ahead in the polls).
Goldman Sachs said in April that sterling was set for a “big finish” (higher) once the gridlock in the UK parliament ends and a deal is agreed and certainty found.
Earlier this year, currency analysts at HSBC estimated that the pound would be valued at levels near US$1.10 in the event of no-deal, near US$1.45 with a deal and at US$1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.
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