Bias: range-bound, current AUD/GBP sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the last three months' range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: RBA hints at possible tightening in 2026 while BoE plans gradual easing, widening the rate gap in favour of AUD.
- Risk/commodities: China's uneven rebound dampens Australian commodity demand, keeping AUD more volatile against GBP.
- Macro factor: Upcoming Australian CPI data could shift policy expectations and the pair's path in the near term.
Range: Range-bound movement within the recent three-month band is likely, with only modest moves toward the upper end if risk appetite improves.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected Australian inflation or a firmer RBA signal could push AUD higher.
- Downside risk: deeper BoE rate cuts or softer UK data could lift GBP and push AUD/GBP lower.