AUD/IDR - Rate Guide

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)

The rupiah slipped in mid-May to 4-month lows against the US dollar (Rp.14,450) and yen (Rp.132), though it was steady against the Australian dollar (Rp.9,960). This pattern shows how much of the rupiah’s recent movements have been driven by risk sentiment. The rupiah remains historically weak, given its proximity to October’s 20-year low of Rp.15,265 per USD.

Weighing on investor sentiment this year has been the significant escalation in US-China trade tensions. Washington and Beijing both stepped up measures against one another.

For the rupiah, not helping matters in May was news of Indonesia’s worst monthly trade deficit in 6 years, at US$2.5 billion.

With exports struggling, Indonesia’s central bank is under pressure to lower interest rates from 6 percent, but having already pledged to support the rupiah, these rate cuts are unlikely to come, for now.

Capital Economics said in May that the rupiah would be “vulnerable to sudden falls during periods of weak risk appetite.”

DBS warned of “dire consequences” for emerging market currencies like the rupiah if no trade agreement is struck between the US and China.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the AUD / IDR was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.