The market bias for the AUD to IDR exchange rate is currently mildly bullish.
Key drivers include the anticipated interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), expected to raise rates to 3.85% early next year. Additionally, the Australian economy's positive outlook, driven by rising inflation, bolsters the AUD. On the other hand, Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid depreciation create opposing pressure on the IDR.
In the near term, the AUD to IDR is likely to trade within a stable range, reflecting modest fluctuations in a projected band defined by recent data points. Recent trading shows the AUD is 2.0% above its three-month average, with a rather stable 4.8% fluctuation range.
An upside risk could arise if global demand for Australia's commodities strengthens significantly, while a downside risk includes further interventions by Bank Indonesia failing to stabilize the rupiah, leading to increased volatility.