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AUD to JPY Forecasts

The FX market's bellwether for risk sentiment, AUD/JPY, is expected by Westpac at ¥72 at the end of 2019.  Read more

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The yen was the star performer in the weeks leading up to this report (May-17), with appreciation driven by a flight to safety following a serious escalation in the US-China trade war. The benchmark yen rate, USD/JPY, was down in the mid-109s, having been as high as 112.4 in late April. Relatively speaking, against their April highs, other yen rates had fallen even more (NZD/JPY was down from 76 to 71.6).

In May, HSBC warned against thinking that yen-supporting safe-haven flows would soon stop, implying that the yen could have more upside potential in the near term. The bank highlighted the “desolation and destruction” (an exaggeration) present in many major economies and currencies. “You can never get too high,” the bank’s chief analyst said.

Read more in the article JPY Forecasts.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the AUD / JPY was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.