Forecasts for AUD to JPY
The Australian dollar (AUD) recently faced significant depreciation, primarily driven by disappointing GDP growth figures that fell short of market expectations. This data has heightened speculation among FX analysts regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the first half of 2025. Additional pressure may arise from upcoming trade figures, with the potential for continuing contraction in export growth, further straining the AUD. Currently trading at 97.43 JPY, the AUD is approximately 1.8% below its three-month average of 99.18, reflecting the heightened volatility in this currency pair, which has ranged from 94.38 to 102.1 JPY over the last few months. The continued reliance on commodity exports and the performance of China’s economy will be crucial in shaping the AUD's future trajectory.
Conversely, the Japanese yen (JPY) has experienced notable volatility following a snap election, leading to a decline of over 5.50% against the USD throughout October. As FX analysts point out, speculation around the Japanese government’s potential influence on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could prompt further easing of monetary policy, weighing on the yen. The JPY's weakness is also exacerbated by the sustained policy of low-interest rates in Japan compared to tightening policies elsewhere, particularly in the US. Furthermore, fluctuations in oil prices, recently observed to be trading at 72.14 USD—2.4% below their three-month average—add another layer of complexity to the yen's performance, given Japan’s status as a net oil importer. As global economic dynamics evolve, market participants will closely monitor developments in both Australia and Japan to navigate the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the AUD/JPY exchange rate.
