This is the current AUD-MXN mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-MXN exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs MXN, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Mexican Peso news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
12-December-18: The peso has done well in 2018. A new trade agreement with the US and Canada (USMCA) struck in September boosted economic certainty but failed to support FX valuations; instead, late in the year, a 3-month trade truce between the US and China, and the offer by authorities to buy back bonds linked to a cancelled airport project each provided a shot in the arm.
Approaching year-end, the peso was showing a 2018 loss of only 2 percent against a strong US dollar. USD/MXN failed to break meaningfully above 20.5 despite trying in four separate weeks spanning November and December, and after peso bears threw in the towel, the peso strengthened by December-12 to 20.0. Rates between 20.5 and 20.6 now offer meaningful resistance (peso support).
“The peso is likely to remain under devaluation pressure for the time being since there is a lot of uncertainty about the political future of the country,” a Commerzbank analyst said in December. However, midway through 2019, “against the backdrop of a credible central bank and high interest rates, the peso should recover somewhat.”
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