AUD/MXN Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average without a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised interest rates, while the Bank of Mexico has cut rates, creating a widening appeal for the Australian dollar.
- Risk/commodities: Recent stability in oil prices supports the Australian dollar as it remains a commodity currency, benefiting from demand for exports.
- Macro factor: Australia’s inflation data surpassed the RBA's target, increasing expectations for potential further rate hikes, which could bolster the AUD.
Range:
AUD/MXN likely to hold within its current range after showing stability, drifting between 11.78 and 12.17.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected labor or inflation report in Australia could further drive up interest rates.
- Downside risk: Any unexpected negative developments in U.S. economic policies might pressure the Mexican peso and subsequently affect AUD/MXN.