Currency news and forecasts for Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs AUD, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar news and forecasts.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Market news and forecasts
5-December-18: In early December, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.34 per USD — its weakest level in 18 months. It did so after traders revised down their expectations for future Canadian interest rate hikes following a dovish Bank of Canada meeting.
Also not helping the loonie in late 2018 has been the oil price which, by the time of this report, had slumped 30 percent from 2018 highs. Oil is Canada’s largest export.
In December, several FX analysts expressed a belief that inevitable OPEC production cuts will create a rebound in the oil market, which will drive the Canadian dollar higher throughout 2019.
Risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions. Tensions eased in early December when US and Chinese leaders agreed to suspend tariff increases for 3 months.
Also in December, Citibank offered a “long-term” (>18 months) forecast for USD/CAD of 1.2, representing potential CAD appreciation of 12 percent.
Australian Dollar (AUD) - Market news and forecasts
November-26: In the weeks leading up to this report, the Australian dollar was among the best performing global currencies. A broader 2018 view will, though, show a currency that is struggling. The good news is that the Aussie’s prospects for 2019 remain good.
Important for AUD in November was the break of an important technical trendline that demarcated the 2018 downtrend. Between January and late October, the currency lost nearly 14 percent against the US dollar to trade at a 2-1/2-year low of $0.702. It had recovered by the time of this report into the $0.72s. Similar could be said of AUD’s performance against the euro.
Easing trade tensions between the US and China was another big positive for AUD in November.
Inaction on interest rates from the RBA has lended itself to lower AUD exchange rates but this will change next year. The inevitability of higher Australian interest rates will become the narrative in mid-2019, thinks Citibank, and this will drive capital into AUD and force its price up to $0.77. CIBC expressed a similar view in November, albeit with a slightly lower mid-19 forecast of $0.76.