This is the current CAD-AUD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market CAD-AUD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs AUD, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar news and forecasts.
7-February-19: January was a fantastic month for the Canadian dollar. A gain of 4 percent relative to the US dollar took USD/CAD away from 19-month highs near C$1.365 into the low C$1.31s.
A recovery in the oil market has played a big part in the loonie’s 2019 recovery. By the time of this report, oil had gained nearly $12 per barrel, or 23 percent, on 2018 lows. The price of oil remains vital to Canada’s economy; it had fallen by as much as 40 percent in the October-December period.
Going forward, risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions.
Towards the end of 2018, Goldman Sachs predicted a strong energy market rebound in 2019 — more so than has already been realised — and this would underpin Canada’s currency.
In February, Westpac reaffirmed its view that the Canadian dollar would be an outperformer in 2019. Canada’s growth picture is more secure than those of the eurozone, UK or Australia, Westpac believes, and as a result, the Bank of Canada will be more hawkish this year relative to other G10 central banks, driving CAD appreciation.
19-February-19: Since a flash crash in early January which saw the Australian dollar briefly trade at a 10-year low, the Aussie has recovered and then stabilized in the US71-72¢ region, near the average rate of the past 6 months.
Of late, the outlook for the Australian economy, and therefore for the Australian dollar, has taken a turn for the worse: the RBA has slashed growth and inflation forecasts and markets have moved to price in a near-100 percent chance of an interest rate cut before the year is out.
In February, HSBC cut its AUD/USD forecast to just US66¢, nearly 20 percent below 2018’s high of US81.36¢. AUD rates in the mid-60s haven’t been seen since the great financial crisis a decade ago.
In January, a senior researcher at BNP Paribas said that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
Also in January, Capital Economics cuts its AUD/USD year-end forecast to just US60¢.
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