CAD/USD Outlook:
Bullish, supported by CAD's strength from rising oil prices.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada maintains its cautious stance, while the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts, making the USD less attractive.
• Risk/commodities: The Canadian dollar benefits from oil being significantly above its recent average, boosting expectations for further gains.
• One macro factor: Growing concerns about the U.S. labor market may hinder USD strength and benefit the CAD.
Range:
CAD/USD is likely to hold near current highs, with potential to drift within a stable recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained increase in oil prices could further bolster the CAD.
• Downside risk: A surprising weakness in U.S. economic data might bring the USD back into focus.