CAD to AUD Forecast & Outlook
21 Mar 2026 • 00:34 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 1.0090 – 1.0340
- Dominant driver: ⚖️ Interest-rate differentials
- 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound
Currently, CAD/AUD is trading close to its 3-month low at 1.0342, holding near the recent bottom of its range. The dominant driver remains the rate differential, with the RBA expected to tilt towards hikes and risk-sensitive flows supporting a weaker AUD. Over the next few sessions, exchange rates may remain supported by these factors but could face pressure if global risk sentiment improves.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Australia may find Australian Dollar (AUD) less favourable than recent levels.
- Travellers: exchanging currency might see slightly higher costs when buying AUD foreign cash.
- Businesses: paying Australian Dollar (AUD) invoices with Canadian Dollars (CAD) could encounter marginally less advantageous conditions.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: RBA's rising interest hike expectations continue to support a weaker AUD, benefiting CAD in this pair.
- Risk/commodities: Risk-off sentiment remains supported by global geopolitical tensions, pushing risk-sensitive FX lower.
- Global factors: Elevated trade uncertainties and oil prices add to CAD's volatility, influencing its range-bound behaviour.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A shift in global risk sentiment away from safety assets could support the AUD.
- Downside risk: Unexpected global risk flare-ups or a slowdown in RBA hikes could push the pair closer to recent lows.
BER suggests shopping around for the lowest margin provider to help reduce overall transfer costs and consider comparing FX providers to offset less favourable exchange conditions.
