This is the current CAD-EUR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market CAD-EUR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs EUR, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and Euro news and forecasts.
In the March-April period (to April-20), the Canadian dollar traded mostly sideways relative to USD, between C$1.33 and C$1.34; it was stable against EUR, at C$1.50, but against AUD it neared 15-week lows, at C$0.957.
Unlike other oil-sensitive currencies, the Canadian dollar has failed to take advantage of a thriving oil market, with the market’s attention instead turned towards the global economic slowdown and the Canadian housing market, which, according to the IMF, is now as risky as it was during the 2007-08 financial crisis.
Forecasters at RBC expect further sideways price action until mid-year, after which the loonie probably weakens modestly towards C$1.36 to the USD by year-end.
CIBC is also predicting C$1.36 per USD in December, and sees further weakness to C$1.40 sometime in 2020 — C$1.40 is an exchange rate last seen in February 2016.
Against the dollar, the euro remains weak. At $1.12 in early April, the euro was barely above March’s 21-month low of $1.118. Against the pound, it traded at £0.86 (a level it never sank to in 2018), but it fared better against the Australian dollar, with EUR/AUD rates in line with 2018’s average, at A$1.578.
Euro weakness has been driven by Brexit uncertainties and has followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued [economic] weakness.”
Forecasts: ING analysts wrote in March that they expect the low-yielding euro to continue to depreciate against USD over the coming months; ANZ said it saw rates falling as low as $1.08 by mid-year; Danske Bank said the euro would trade between $1.12 and 1.16 at year-end.
For EUR/GBP, Nordea Research thinks a no-deal Brexit will put £0.95 in play, a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and Theresa May’s deal should see £0.83-0.84.
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