CAD/EUR Outlook: The outlook for CAD/EUR is slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its 90-day average and near its recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained its policy rate while the European Central Bank exhibits caution, which may impact the relative strength of the currencies.
• Risk/commodities: A recent drop in oil prices has pressured the Canadian dollar, which is sensitive to oil volatility due to Canada being a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Weak retail sales data from Germany suggests concerns about consumer spending in the Eurozone, potentially limiting the euro's gains.
Range: Expect CAD/EUR to hold within its recent range, possibly drifting within its 1.6% corridor.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant recovery in oil prices could boost the Canadian dollar's value.
• Downside risk: Continued weak economic data from Europe could further pressuring the euro.