The CAD/EUR forecast is range-bound, as the Canadian dollar (CAD) is just above its 90-day average and trades comfortably within the recent 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada recently lowered interest rates, aligning closely with the European Central Bank's current rates, which may limit significant shifts.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are 1.9% above their 3-month average, supporting the CAD, as Canada's economy benefits from this trend.
- Eurozone economic growth: Forecasts indicate a stable growth rate of 1.6% for 2026, which may help sustain the euro's value.
Range: The CAD/EUR is expected to hold within its recent trading range, reflecting stable market conditions and limited volatility.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Sustained increases in oil prices could lift the CAD further against the Euro.
- Downside risk: Disappointing employment or trade data from Canada could weaken the CAD and increase the euro’s strength.