CAD/EUR Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows without a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates to support economic growth, while the European Central Bank maintains a tighter policy, creating pressure on the CAD against the EUR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently at 90-day highs, exceeding the 3-month average, yet the softening trend may limit the Canadian dollar's potential due to its reliance on oil exports.
• Macro factor: The recent drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. amid tariffs has created uncertainty, affecting demand for the CAD.
Range: The CAD/EUR rate is likely to hold within its recent 1.5% range as market factors are mixed.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise increase in Canadian export demand or stronger-than-expected economic data could bolster the CAD.
• Downside risk: Further declines in oil prices or escalation in trade policy uncertainty could weaken the CAD further against the EUR.