CAD/EUR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has adopted a cautious monetary stance, while the European Central Bank maintains its interest rates amid Eurozone resilience.
• Risk/commodities: Although oil prices are rising, recent volatility adds uncertainty to the CAD’s strength, as Canada is a significant oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Eurozone inflation recently fell below the ECB's target, raising speculation about potential future rate cuts.
Range:
Expect the CAD/EUR to hold steady within its recent trading range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A substantial increase in oil prices could strengthen the CAD significantly.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions in Europe could lead to further weakness in the EUR, negatively impacting the CAD/EUR pair.