CAD/EUR Outlook:
The CAD/EUR exchange rate is likely to move sideways as it is currently near its recent average and within a stable trading range. Strength in oil prices is providing some support to the Canadian dollar, but broader economic concerns could limit further gains.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained a cautious approach to interest rates, while the European Central Bank is also focusing on managing inflation, contributing to a balanced effect on their currencies.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently rebounded above their average, boosting demand for the Canadian dollar as Canada is a major oil exporter.
- Macro factor: Recent industrial production data from the Eurozone showed a significant decline, indicating potential weaknesses in the euro's performance.
Range:
The CAD/EUR exchange rate is expected to hold within its recent trading range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sharp increase in oil prices could enhance CAD's strength.
- Downside risk: Poor economic data from Canada or a significant rebound in the euro could weaken the CAD against the EUR.